• 8 Posts
  • 4.67K Comments
Joined 3 years ago
cake
Cake day: August 24th, 2023

help-circle





  • I have an older Teala with AP, and I dont understand how this is possible…

    You can’t engage it on your driveway. It’ll say its unavailable. You gotta be moving a bit first on a roadway.

    If he was on the roadway and turning into his driveway, AP cant make turns, so thats not possible.

    He could have had traffic aware cruise control on, and auto steer off so he could steer it, but then he’s the one who drove it into the garage.

    Edit: maybe a cul du sac where he’s at the end and itd drive straight up, but he wouldn’t have been able to turn onto it, which means he would have had to turn it on just for the small street?

    Edit: and if they story is it went off the road into the garage on its own with a sudden turn… check that angle out. Its not like it came in on a shallow angle veering off the road, its almost 90 degrees to the garage from a short driveway…


  • That would have been AutoPilot 6 years ago.

    AP back then had radar, but radar cant reliably detect a stationary object at high speeds. Every OEMs traffic aware cruise control had this weakness if its radar based back then. They typically warn you about it before first use, which is part of why you must pay attention.

    Only vision or lidar can address an issue like this, and cars weren’t really shipping with lidar back then.

    Newer Teslas with HW4 and FSD would handle this better. HW3 and FSD might not reliably handle it, but its hard to say.

    Edit: and even today on HW4 car, AP would probably fail here like this story. Its just not meant for this and is very very old at this point.


  • Autopilot isnt FSD Supervised.

    Autopilot just keeps you in lane and distanced from a lead car, mainly meant for highways/ freeways. A combination of auto steer (for lane) and traffic aware cruise control.

    FSD Supervised is meant for anywhere and will take turns, change lanes, stop for lights etc.

    They no longer sell or include AP, and its been renamed to something involving autosteer for existing owners. New purchases can only subscribe to FSD Supervised now.

    They might be one of the only major OEMs that dont include any kind of lane keeping in their cars now, which is pretty much standard now.






  • I think you’re estimates for launch costs are off. Starship is targeting $50-$200/kg or lower if they are successful. In the short term, you’re $30 million is probably more correct or maybe even to low, but they will very likely lose money while they iterate on reusability and get the costs down to their expected levels.

    It’s going to take a lot of launches to get Starship to the point of reusability where the $50-200/kg comes true, but they need to launch something to help recoup those costs which is what starlink/ai will be. I’m not convinced the AI dishes will generate as much revenue as they think though and that it will still be a loss.

    The current spec’d ship can theoretically do 100T+ but that’ll be expanded, but that puts all in launch costs and staffing and refurbishment etc at around $5-20 million per launch. You don’t sell it for $50/kg if you can’t eventually support the whole business at $50/kg.

    Assuming they can fully utilize the 100T with these dishes that’s ~50 DC Satellites per launch as currently designed, or ~6250Kw compute and 7500Kw of solar per launch. (edit: for reference, its going to be 60 starlink v3, so if physical size isn’t a limiting factor, just 10 less dishes)

    I don’t know where you’re getting $4.5 million for 150kw of solar. Space will be more expensive, but it’s $1.1-$1.5w in the USA right now at large commercial scale on land, and SpaceX will be making their own so there’s no profit margin on that. You’re putting it at 20x-27x the cost of land solar after someone takes a profit.

    I have no idea what radiators will cost, but they figured it out for Starlink v3, this will just be a lot bigger. (edit: i do expect it to cost less than the solar array though, it should be simpler)

    I think we might get a lot more details on what things could actually cost, if we can get any leaked or real info about what a Starlink V3 satellite costs, which maybe now that they’re public, that will come out once they start launching? They might obfuscate the per dish cost though by grouping it with other things?

    I like your idea of some future taxing of usage in space. As it gets more crowded, more money will need to be spent on monitoring it, and coordinating things all of which is an ongoing cost, and taxing it yearly/per dish to help fund research and such would be great.