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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
I’ll just post this here and get some popcorn.
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Apparently the person who made this meme can’t read either, considering Duverger’s Law is structural.
Duverger’s Law is structural
Or maybe it’s bullshit, designed to scare people into voting for bad candidates.
Even Duverger himself did not consider it some universal law, merely as a statistical trend. A better formulation would be ‘under these conditions, a third party has difficulty forming and attracting voters, and an established party can survive longer than it should, purely based on merit’. Says the exact same thing, but cannot be misinterpreted as easily.
I mean, it doesn’t sound like we’re in disagreement then.
I tend to be touchy on the subject because of some… unrealistic positions sometimes passed around ten minutes before an election in a two-party system.
no, the law is still very much real, statistical outliers, especially during times of significant upheaval, like complete economic collapse are to be expected with the word “tend”, yet we see in basically every government of the world that follows said principle that this happens
There are two types of laws in science - absolute and statistical. Absolute laws always apply, at least within the framework in which they work. For example, the laws of thermodynamics. Statistical laws, on the other hand, are trends observed in nature. For example, Allen’s rule. I do not question the fact that Duverger’s law, in the form I quoted, is a statistical pattern. But a great deal of damage is caused by people who treat it as a law of nature, and try to metagame the electoral process.
I’m not up to date on Sri Lankan politics. What’s happening?
Instead of calculating who they hate more, the Sri Lankan people voted for the candidate they liked - an anti-corruption activist who got ~3% of the vote last time and was supported by a fringe left-wing party - and he won the presidency over the candidates of the two established parties.
Just doing a tiny bit of research…
This is cool news. It’s always great when politicians who think their jobs are secure get a reminder that voters really do get to decide who will represent them. That said…
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Sri Lanka has a form of ranked choice voting. It looks like it hasn’t seen much use, with the two major parties trading the Presidency back and forth for some time, but it exists, and that’s a lot better than first past the post, which a lot of us are stuck with for the time being. If you’re trapped in America like me, then I definitely recommend agitating and organizing for voting reform, but until that happens, voting as if it doesn’t exist yet, because it doesn’t.
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This election had fewer total votes cast than the last California gubernatorial election. Major political upheavals like this can happen, but they are more likely to happen in smaller elections. If you care about outsider political parties, the best move is to organize at the local or state level, and build a respectable foundation. The next time I hear someone talk about voting third party at the US Presidential level, I’m going to have a Ralph Nader / Florida / Bush vs. Gore flavored aneurysm.
It’s always great when politicians who think their jobs are secure get a reminder that voters really do get to decide who will represent them.
Right. It’s also a reminder to the newly elected guy that he, too, can be replaced if he does not serve the people.
Sri Lanka has a form of ranked choice voting.
While this is technically true, only ~2% of voters seem to have put a second preference. So for practical purposes, it behaved like a plurality election.
If you’re trapped in America like me, then I definitely recommend agitating and organizing for voting reform
The sad thing is that my country has a parliamentary system, and local parties have repeatedly crushed the national parties in state elections. And yet the media and pundits ignore them under the excuse that if people don’t support the crook of their choice, ‘the wrong lizard would win’. In reality, their bosses are probably worried that if any half-competent and honest leader comes to power, (s)he can easily find enough evidence of corruption to throw them and their friends in jail.
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Ah so this is funny because it disproves the rule. How do you like them apples, Duverger?
Rare nonpartisan win, hell yeah
