Image is of Gazans breaking their fast with the Iftar meal during the ongoing Ramadan.
Due to a request by @[email protected], this thread’s COTW is Qatar.
The ceasefire deal broke down early last week after Israel unilaterally changed the terms of the agreement and then blamed Hamas for not meeting them. Violence against civilians has rapidly accelerated to pre-ceasefire levels, with many hundreds dead already, aid once again cut off, and Israeli soldiers once again entering and occupying the attritional labyrinth that is Gaza.
I’m not yet in a position to make any solid predictions or analysis, as the geopolitical situation in and around Israel has changed fairly substantially over the last 6 months; in some ways benefiting Israel, and in other ways not. We know for sure how Hamas and Ansarallah are reacting (thankfully, with open hostility to both Israel and the United States), but the state of Hezbollah has been a giant question mark for months now, and precisely what Iran plans to do (beyond the usual level of supplying weaponry and intelligence to all the allies it can) is unknown. Syria will be almost certainly be a big wildcard, and we’ll have to see if the compradors in Damascus can weather the storm.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Iran might get nuked tonight or tomorrow … there are 5-7 B2 on diego garcia and Russia has send the strategic coperation Agreement to the Parlament for Approval . So the Timewindow for a Act like this is closing fast.
I can’t imagine a world where the US carries out a preemptive nuclear strike on a non-nuclear nation.
If Iran sunk a carrier fleet that might happen though.
that literally allready happend and it had splendid results for the perpetrator
True, but that was when the US was the only nuclear nation. No chance for anyone to respond because… they couldn’t.
I don’t think the US is beyond proliferation of nuclear warfare nowadays, but in terms of technology the US doesnt have the monopoly like it did in 1945.
No, it didn’t. The US was at war with Japan and had already invaded Japanese territories. The nuclear strikes we not pre-emptive.
And back then the horrific nature of nuclear war was not yet fully understood. People were still thinking of nukes as just being really big bombs.
Ignorant nothing ever happens Lurker here, can you explain why this tweet is an indication of nukes being dropped on Iran? Seems like that won’t be very good and would result in a lot of things happening
I dont think AmeriKKKa would be so stupid to do that but I could be convinced otherwise. They might do a strike on Isfahan or something (and tbf using something like a MOAB isn’t far off a tactical nuke in yield).
Even if the nuke was effective in its target, Iran would immediately flatten Israel with the rest of its missile silos (the US would have to expend a lot of its stockpile to disable Iranian missile bases that number hundreds), and they still might have nuclear capabilities within a short time period with almost everyone in Iranian politics begging Khameini to lift his fatwa against Nuclear armament (he’d likely change face if the US nuked them).
The B-2s are probably going to do something really stupid and aggressive against the houthis. Maybe even fly over Iran on the way to Yemen just to prove they can penetrate Iranian AA networks. But even for Trump and Hesgeth the crown jewel of nuking Iran without consequence is far from reality, and likely will never occur (without consequence) since the pact is due to be signed as you said.
I really don’t think a MOAB would be used against Iran, for the reasons listed in the below comment. Most likely bomb to be used would be the MOP from the B-2.
https://hexbear.net/comment/5910393
It’s not an indication of nukes being dropped on Iran, but it is an indication that the assets which would be used to attack Iran (B-2 Spirit stealth bombers in Diego Garcia, 12 F-35As in Saudi Arabia) are being put in place to attack Iran. Such an attack would most likely be conventional, if it happens.
Thank you for the information
In the unlikely (but becoming more likely) event that the US attacks Iran, and in the extremely unlikely event that it goes nuclear, the nuclear option would most likely come from submarines, in the form of submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). No one knows where the submarines are, and Iran would get minutes of warning, if that, from their over the horizon Ghadir early warning radars
Do you happen to have a sense of how far Iran could be from having a nuke that could credibly hit Tel Aviv? Enough to let the US know there’s a reasonable chance that a nuclear attack on Iran will likely destroy the Zionist entity?
Iran has the delivery method (ballistic missiles that can penetrate Israeli air defences), but no nuclear devices/warheads, and not enough enriched uranium to make them. The problem for Iran is not a technical issue, they have the capability to make a nuclear weapon. The problem is that as soon as they start enrichment to the required levels and the USA becomes aware of it, it’s basically a massive sign saying “please attack Iran now”. So to create a nuclear weapon without being attacked, Iran essentially needs a “conventional form of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction)” before making nuclear weapons, to prevent attacks on Iran itself while making nuclear weapons. North Korea had this in artillery aimed at Seoul. Or they need to secretly make hundreds of nuclear warheads without US and Israeli intelligence assets becoming aware of it. Both are huge challenges.
https://www.blackridgeresearch.com/blog/latest-list-of-top-largest-biggest-desalination-desal-water-treatment-plants-projects-israel
Their MAD can be “we’ll launch ballistic missiles at every single Israeli desalination plant if we get nuked.” Israeli desalination plants account for >75% of Israeli domestic water consumption. And most of the desalination comes from 5 facilities. That webpage is hyping up their desalination tech, but I’ve seen similar numbers from other sources.
I don’t think destroying every single plant would completely cut off their ability to have drinkable water since most of the water is going towards agriculture and they can always go back to pumping freshwater from the Sea of Galilee, but it will completely cripple the Zionist entity’s ability to grow crops.
Iran’s real MAD is blowing up every refinery and export terminal in the GCC + Azerbaijan. JD Vance even alluded to as much in the whiskeyleaks group chat.
Israel has the Yarmouk River (a tributary of the Jordan River below the Sea of Galilee), and have been seizing key points in the Yarmouk River Basin in Syria, key dams. So they have a backup water source should desalination plants not be operable. Reclaimed water and desalination makes up of around half of Israel’s water supply.
Does Iran not have the same in artillery aimed at Tel Aviv?
No the distance involved is way too large, Iran has ballistic missiles. Distance from Seoul to the DMZ is 23km, and the DMZ is only 4km wide, putting Seoul well within range of North Korean artillery. Distance from Iran to Tel Aviv is much greater than that, over 1000km. Iran relies on their ballistic missiles to establish deterrence.
I think an war with Yemen might be more likely. This however would be accompanied with attacks on Iran’s infrastructure.