Image is sourced from this Economist article.
Most of the information in this preamble is from the Cradle; notably here, here, here, and here.
The features of an effective American war (proxy or otherwise) is that it is a) against opponents with much less military power than you; b) with very low American losses; c) with victories you can visibly show off from time to time to justify involvement, and d) with a profit margin beyond merely giving money to military corporations. The war against Yemen was none of those; airplanes tumbled off aircraft carriers, and the navy complained of the hardest fighting conditions in decades. Conquering Yemen for its resources was inconceivable given the terrain, lack of good intelligence, and the strength of Ansarallah, and all that seemed to be visibly harmed were empty patches of desert and civilians.
Apparently, the ceasefire last month merely stipulated that they stop attacking merchant vessels in the Red Sea; it said nothing about attacking Israel. Therefore, Yemen is absolutely free to create a new blockade of Israel by just striking their airports and seaports, and all Israel can seem to do is try and bomb them in retaliation, a futile strategy which has failed to produce a military or political change in Yemen for the last decade when many other countries have tried it. And if America directly attacks them in response to attacks on Israel, the ceasefire is off, and expensive equipment will continue to be lost.
Across the strait from Yemen is an interesting array of countries. Egypt’s position in this war is well-known, and Somalia is under a kind of US occupation under the guise of fighting terrorism (Trump withdrew most troops, but they were then sent back under Biden). The other three are Sudan, Djibouti, and Eritrea. All three are increasingly being drawn into the anti-imperialist camp, as they cooperate with Iran, Russia, and/or China. Sudan is undergoing a civil war, but the rebels fighting the government are famously backed by the UAE. Djibouti has refused to allow themselves to be a launchpad for US strikes on Yemen.
Eritrea has a fascinating history of flip-flopping between West and East over the past few decades, but has, since 2020, sided with the East. It was one of the five countries to oppose the 2022 UN resolution condemning Russia’s war with Ukraine. Eritrea sends two thirds of its exports to China, and Iran has reportedly supplied them with military equipment. If a stronger link could be reforged, then Iran would have significantly less trouble sending military technology to Ansarallah, and to other friendly groups throughout the region.
Naturally, the lidless eye of the imperial core is shifting its gaze onto Eritrea. Meanwhile, Ethiopia - a country that has experienced frequent conflict with Eritrea - is part of BRICS+ and their economy is increasingly reliant on China (as is most countries’ economies nowadays). If a permanent resolution between the two could be created, it would be a victory for themselves and the Resistance, and a defeat for America, which thrives on conflict and destabilization.
Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the RedAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Israel announces targeting in Beirut, the first since the “”””ceasefire”””” (they’ve still been droning and bombing and killing, they just hadn’t targeted dahiya).
Gunfire has been reported to warn civilians to leave, while videos show traffic created by fleeing civilians
Today, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated that the recent Kiev regime drone attacks did not destroy any planes. Damaged aircraft will be restored: https://www.rt.com/russia/618702-ukraine-failed-to-destroy-planes/
In other news, Russian forces recently captured two more US-built M1 “Abrams” tanks on the Kursk/Sumy front: https://www.rt.com/russia/618676-russia-seizes-two-ukrainian-abrams/
MERZ: Tomorrow is the D Day anniversary, when the Americans ended a war in Europe
TRUMP: That was not a pleasant day for you? This is not a great day
MERZ: This was the liberation of my country from Nazi dictatorship
They make Merz sound a bit better than his original confused waffling
Activity spotted around a support pillar of Kerch bridge on June 1 by Sentinel 2 satellite imagery
It’s not a Photoshop, you can view it for yourself here
Co ordinates for the small image are incorrect, instead they should be: 45.3079, 36.5070. The image should be this:
Now the Kerch bridge has reopened and the attack appears unsuccessful. But what the hell is going on with Russia’s internal security? How can this be observable two days before on Sentinel 2 and Russia is seemingly unaware? Maybe they were aware of it, I don’t know. But still.
I think a weakened NATO and a weakened Russia as a consequence of this war is pretty much the best scenario for China in the long term so I don’t mind Russia being cringe every now and then.
yeah actually a Russia that’s both dependent on China and hostile to the US is an excellent outcome and the best odds of USSR 2
Is the Kerch bridge even needed now since Russia has a land connection to Crimea anyways?
It sees very little military traffic now compared to the start of the war. Ever since the end of the Mariupol siege the military importance of the bridge has wained. It still sees a lot of civilian passenger and freight traffic due to Crimea being a popular tourist destination. It is only being targeted because of its symbolic importance and to terrorize civilians.
God really wants that bridge to stand.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kramatorsk_railway_station_attack
Look at this shit from NATOpedia. Just straight up lying and confidently saying:
On 8 April 2022, a Russian[2][3][4][5][6][7][8] missile strike hit the railway station of the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The strike killed 63 civilians (including 9 children) and wounded 150 (including 34 children).
All of their sources are CNN, The Atlantic, Institute for the Study of War, BBC, etc. (People who are not present at the location of reporting and all pro-west rags).
They even give up the whole game a little later…
The missiles were initially misidentified as Iskander ballistic missiles.[20] Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of Donetsk oblast, later specified that they had rather been Tochka-U missiles armed with cluster munitions.[15]
Huh, no mention of the fact that Ukraine still used Tochka-U missiles in its active service while Russia retired them in 2017. Nor any mention of the fact that video evidence and the various booster wreckage shows that the missile came from the west, all Ukrainian controlled territory at the time. Interesting how Russia managed to launch a missile they don’t use from a place where they don’t control.
The remnants of one of the missiles had the Russian words ЗА ДЕТЕЙ (za detey), meaning “[in revenge] for the children”, painted in white on its outside.[21] It also bore serial number Ш91579, which investigators said could potentially help trace it back to its original arsenal.[22][23]
Blacks rule.
Most obvious false flag shit i’ve ever seen. Nazis were mad they keep dying and losing, so they perpetrate a false flag to try and wave the bloody shirt and get America more involved. Funny how these investigations from the west never went anywhere and dried up instantly. Huh, why would that happen? Something they don’t want to reveal about who owned the missile? Oh wait, they give up the game again later…
Russian media also said that the serial number of the missile was in the same range as one used by Ukrainian forces. Serial numbers cannot be used to prove which side fired the missile, however, since all Tochka-U’s were manufactured at a single site in Russia and distributed from there across the Soviet Union. As a result, there was, for example, a close serial number match between a Tochka-U used by Russia in Syria and one used by Ukraine in Snizhne.[39][40][41] Moreover, both Russia and Ukraine have made extensive use of munitions captured from the other side.[42][43]
Oh suddenly it’s useless I guess what are ya gonna do.
Major ambush of zionist forces near Jabalia camp. First an enemy hummer was targeted with an anti-tank shell; then after the enemy forces retreated to a building, the building was targeted with a second shell. Then, as three helicopters attempted to evacuate their dead and wounded, one of the helicopters was struck by an anti-tank missile. At least three are dead and there are at least 11 casualties total.
It should be noted that the ruins of Jabalia camp are in the far north of Gaza, and was one of the first areas “cleared” by the enemy. Nearly 2 years of genocidal campaigning and bombardment has failed to make the area safe for the occupation.
In related news, earlier today the IOF confirmed that 75 officers and soldiers have been wounded in the Gaza strip over the past 6 days (unclear whether these figures include the toll of tonight’s attack)
The resilience of the Palestinian people is truly inspirational
I wonder if this is a sign that the incredible restraint on not targeting medivac helicopters is coming to an end.
Well, after IOF targeting ambulances and hospitals for decades …
It poses one of those macabre strategic questions: wounded IOF take resources and manpower to keep alive, not to mention morale and mental drain, so letting the medevac go through makes decent tactical sense, in a way.
My understanding is that it is religious. I’m not well versed in Islamic theology but there is apparently some sort of prohibition on attacked wounded fighters. Or that is how Hamas interprets it idk
Islamic Resistance in Syria allegedly claims two rockets fired into the occupied golan heights
Take this with a grain of salt though, three groups have claimed it, while this video may be misrepresented and this faction has its own question marks about it. Could be a Syrian version of the Lebanon rockets
https://t.me/CoastSyrian24/2519
Renewed Israeli bombardment in southern Syria is causing an exodus of civilians
Thank God the Muqawama is still there.
Six Nobel Laureates Urge Senate to Reject Trump’s Tax and Budget Bill - Telesur
Article
Acemoglu, Diamond, Hart, Johnson, Krugman and Stiglitz warned of the proposal’s ‘misplaced priorities.’ On Monday, six Nobel Prize-winning economists urged the U.S. Senate to reject President Donald Trump’s proposed tax and budget legislation.
In an open letter, Daron Acemoglu, Peter Diamond, Oliver Hart, Simon Johnson, Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz warned of the proposal’s “misplaced priorities,” saying it “significantly increases the debt” while “reducing income for the poorest 40%.”
“The most immediate and severe harm resulting from this bill would be felt by the millions of American families who would lose key safety net protections,” they wrote, referring specifically to cuts to Medicaid, Medicare and food assistance programs.
These cuts “represent a troubling step backward in the country’s commitment to ensuring access to health care for all,” the letter continued. It was published on the Economic Policy Institute’s website.
Dubbed the “big, beautiful bill,” the sweeping legislation narrowly passed the House of Representatives by a 215-214 vote. It now heads to the Senate, where it faces a difficult path to final approval, amid pressure from the White House to reach Trump’s desk before July 4.
The ambitious plan seeks to extend Trump-era tax cuts from his first term (2017–2021) and introduces new breaks, including exemptions for tips and for purchases of domestically manufactured vehicles. It also boosts funding for enforcement of the president’s hardline immigration policies.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the legislation would add about US$3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years. The national debt currently exceeds US$36 trillion.
To offset this increase, the plan includes more than US$1 trillion in cuts to social programs. According to the CBO, federal Medicaid funding would be reduced by nearly US$700 billion, and Medicare would see cuts of approximately US$500 billion. The nonpartisan office also warned that these figures may rise, and it projected a US$267 billion reduction in food stamp assistance.
“U.S. structural deficits are already too high… and these tax cuts overwhelmingly benefit higher-income households,” the six prominent economists said. They also predicted that “the resulting increase in debt and deficits will place considerable upward pressure on inflation and interest rates in the coming years.”
According to the Nobel laureates, the bill as currently written “fails to meaningfully address any of the country’s key economic challenges and, in fact, worsens many of them. The Senate should reject this legislation and start over with the budget.”
Alternate title for the glib- Six clowns condemn seventh’s circus act. Take a look at the works and ideas these people put forward, and they are really only marginally less serious than trump when it comes to helping the poor or building a welfare net.
Also, these aren’t Nobel winners, as in winners of the original categories stipulated by Nobel. Instead they were awarded the Nobel Memorial prize in economics, which was started by the Swedish Central Bank in 1968. It’s purpose was to redirect popular and academic attention back towards liberal theories, instead of towards alternatives (ie.Marxists), by way of providing a fake academic gloss and placing economists like Friedman and Hayek on the same level of import as Einstein or Martin Luther King.
Apologies, I forgot it was new thread time. I’ve been asked to repost this, so I will:
Confirmed Russian losses due to Ukraine’s “Spiderweb” attack on Russian tactical and strategic bombers.
Part 1, Olenya Airbase:
- 4x Tu-95 burning, severely damaged or destroyed:
- 1x An-12 transport plane burning, severely damaged or destroyed:
- In this photo, you can see that the 1st and 4th Tu-95s got consumed by flames, along with the suspected An-12 on the left
Belaya Airbase:
- 3x Tu-95s and 4x Tu-22M3s severely damaged or destroyed, 1x Tu-95 with some minor damage.
- UNCONFIRMED: Fire near or at the parking sites of Tu-160 strategic bombers:
Total so far:
- 7x Tu-95 severely damaged or destroyed.
- 4x Tu-22M3 severely damaged or destroyed.
- 1x An-12 severely damaged or destroyed.
- 1x Tu-95 with minor damage.
For a total of 13 aircraft confirmed damaged or destroyed, with 12 of them showing signs of severe damage. Ukraine initially claimed 40, but a success rate of 32.5%, or around 1/3, is nothing to scoff at for an attack like this. There is still potential for more damage to be discovered as more satellite imagery gets released.
I’ll discuss the impact on the Tu-95 strategic bomber fleet below in a reply.
To talk about the Tu-95 strategic bomber fleet, first we must look at the number of Tu-95 bombers currently operated by Russia and the variants used. As of 2023, Russia has been assessed to operate 55 Tu-95s. As for variants, 25 of these are MS6 specification, and 30 are either MS16 or MSM specification, as only MS16 specification Tu-95s can be modernised to the MSM standard, for reasons I’ll explain below. As of 2020 before MSM modernisation began in earnest, it was assessed that Russia operated 25 MS6 and 30 MS16 specification Tu-95s, hence the numbers above for the 2023 estimates. Source -Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Nuclear Notebook.
So what’s the difference between the three Tu-95 models in service, the MS6, the MS16 and the MSM? It’s all about the missiles they can carry and the functionality. The MS6 and MS16 were built to carry the Kh-55 cruise missile (with both nuclear and conventional variants), with the number being the amount of Kh-55s they can carry. MS6 specification Tu-95s carry 6 Kh-55 missiles on an internal rotary launcher and no missiles externally.
MS16 specification Tu-95s carry these 6 Kh-55 missiles internally, along with an additional 10 Kh-55s on external pylons for a total of 16.
However, the Kh-55 has seen limited use in the Ukraine war due to its low survivability, lacking stealth/low observability features and modern countermeasures and guidance systems. Instead, the Russians have made more extensive use of the more modern Kh-101 subsonic cruise missile (nuclear variant Kh-102), which has these features. However, due to the increased size of the Kh-101, it cannot fit in the internal weapons bays and rotary launchers of the Tu-95. This means that the MS6 specification Tu-95, of which Russia has 25 out of 55, cannot carry the Kh-101 at all due to a lack of external pylons. The MS16 specification Tu-95 can physically carry some Kh-101s externally, but not a load of 10 due to the increased size, I’d estimate a maximum load of 4 with Jerry rigged pylons, and without the full capabilities of the Kh-101 (such as changing target after launch) due to outdated electronics. This is where the MSM specification Tu-95 comes in.
The MSM specification Tu-95 is a full modernisation program, that costs about $50 million per MS16 airframe modified. MS6 airframes cannot be modified to MSM specification as they lack external pylons, the wings were not built to handle such loads. MSM modernisation consists of new engines, avionics, radars, electronic countermeasures, and new external pylons, which allows an MSM specification Tu-95 to carry 8 Kh-101 missiles externally. The increased size of the Kh-101 means a load of 10 externally is no longer possible, the outboard pylons can only hold two Kh-101 missiles each, not three as with the Kh-55. Also, the Kh-101 still does not fit in the internal weapons bays, so even the MSM can only carry the Kh-55 internally. Maximum combined load of an MSM is 14 missiles: 8 Kh-101s externally and 6 Kh-55s internally.
All this is to say that the effect on the strategic bomber force really depends on what variants of the Tu-95 Ukraine destroyed, an MS6, MS16 or MSM. It’s impossible to verify which aircraft have been destroyed at this time. MSM aircraft would be the most costly loss, followed by MS16. As for estimates, this is difficult as it’s unknown how many of the 30 airframes are MS-16 or MSM. For a Ukraine exclusive force reduction scenario, let’s say all 30 are MSM, and all 8 damaged are MSM. That would reduce the maximum Kh-101 salvo from 240 to 176, a 27% reduction in capability. However, such is quite unlikely. I don’t think Ukraine exclusively destroyed MSM specification Tu-95s, and I don’t think that all 30 potential airframes are at MSM standard. Ukraine could’ve also destroyed some MS6 airframes.
What could Russia do in the meantime? The could see if they have some old MS16 airframes lying around, about 55 were built, which leaves 25 currently not in service or in boneyards somewhere. However, the cost of bringing back one of these planes back into service, yet alone modernising it to MSM standard would be enormous, much more than the current $50 million to take an already flying MS16 and modernise it to MSM. That brings up the question of if this is even possible, the out of service 25 MS16 airframes might’ve already been used for spare parts to keep the 30 in service MS16s flying, or they might be in too poor of a condition to ever get airworthy again. It’s fair to say that these are permanent losses as Russia no longer makes Tu-95 strategic bombers. As for how long it’ll take Russia to make 7-8 new production Tu-160s to replace them, that’s anyone’s guess, but I’d estimate years, if not over a decade. As for the PAK-DA, the Russian equivalent to the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, it only exists on computer screens at the moment.
Any updates to the aircraft losses?
Just more imagery further confirming these ones, still at 13 for now. The New York Times claims that they’ve spoken to European and American defence analysts that state there are 20 damaged or destroyed aircraft, and apparently there’s an “unreleased video” showing hits on the radomes of two A-50 AWACS aircraft. But I cannot verify what I can’t see, so still at 13 for now. Clouds are also making it difficult, hence the use of SAR imagery, the black and white images.
One of the Tu-95s destroyed had the registration RF-94257, Bort No. “22” Red, named Chelyabinsk. It appears to be an MS6 specification Tu-95, photos of it show no external pylons of any kind. Here’s it flying in happier days.
Another Tu-95 that was destroyed does appear to have the external pylons visible from the top, peeking out from under the right wing. I’ve circled it in yellow. The location matches exactly with the location of the outboard underwing pylons. Likely an MSM specification Tu-95.
If I see anything new I’ll post it.
- 4x Tu-95 burning, severely damaged or destroyed:
Removed by mod
Cw: csa
spoiler
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-856407
If this shit was coming from anywhere other than mainstream Zionist media, I would dismiss it as an anti Semitic conspiracy. But the victims aren’t lying. There is a horrifying satanic sexual abuse ring in powerful Zionist circles.
Poland designates July 11 as the National Day of Remembrance of Polish Victims of Genocide Committed by the OUN and UPA. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, this contradicts the good neighborly relations between Kyiv and Warsaw
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/poland-marks-july-11-to-honor-volhynia-victims-1749123485.html
‘Time to drop the bomb’: Elon Musk claims Trump named in Epstein Files - Business Standard
Article
In a dramatic escalation of their ongoing feud, Elon Musk has in his latest public attack claimed that US President Donald Trump “is in the Epstein files” and that’s “the real reason” they have not been released in his latest public attack.
“Time to drop the really big bomb,” Musk posted on X. “@realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!”
For the unversed, Jeffrey Epstein was a millionaire known for associating with celebrities, politicians, billionaires and academic stars. He was initially arrested in Palm Beach, Florida, in 2005 after he was accused of paying a 14-year-old girl for sex. Dozens of other underage girls described similar sexual abuse.
Meanwhile, the US President has threatened to cut billions of dollars in federal contracts and tax subsidies for Elon Musk’s companies. In a post on Truth Social, he wrote, “The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts. I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!”
In another post, he wrote, “Elon was “wearing thin,” I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!”
Trump, Musk air dirty laundary in public
Earlier in the day, Trump said that he’s unsure whether their “good relationship” will continue, following disagreements over a key tax bill and electric vehicle (EV) mandates.
“I’m very disappointed with Elon. I’ve helped him a lot,” Trump said. “He knew the inner workings of the bill better than anybody sitting here. He had no problem with it—until he found out we’re going to cut the EV mandate.”
The remarks come days after Musk vocally opposed Trump’s flagship tax legislation — dubbed the “Big Beautiful Bill” — urging lawmakers via social media to reject what he described as a “megabill” that would increase the national deficit and place a heavy debt burden on Americans.
In response, Elon Musk claimed that Trump would have lost the 2024 election “without me”. The Tesla chief also accused Trump of showing “such ingratitude”.
Tesla stock down. 284.70 USD −47.35 (14.26%)today. Just
at this company’s over valued stock
