Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran’s leadership must - if they haven’t already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


  • CleverOleg [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    116
    ·
    edit-2
    27 days ago

    I am having flashbacks to 2003. If you are not old enough or not American… I wish I could be more articulate on this. It’s a feeling of foreboding because events are in motion and there is nothing in the universe that can or will stop it. From the perspective of the mainstream media and US politicians, it’s like they’ve learned nothing. Everyone just agrees “this is what we have to do”, and there is no questioning how we move forward.

    But one thing is very, very different; and this is what I’m hanging my hopes on. The bloodlust from the American people just isn’t there like it was in 2003. I know there were some people who were against it but really, pretty much everyone was. All the Barbaras and Debbies (as Hasan says) were on board. All your “apolitical” folks were for it. Everyone had an opinion that was all of 3 minutes old and it was always the company line. The manufacturing consent machine said it had to be done, and the people bought it.

    Before Iraq, Americans viewed actual hot, boots-on-the-ground war in the way we view sanctions today: why not do it, it’s easy our military is great we’ll be in and out easy. Saddam is bad and scary and maybe he has WMDs and maybe he doesn’t but probably a good idea to invade, just to be sure. I do think the one enduring legacy of Iraq on the American psyche is that we are now snake bitten on invading other countries (this is ofc a good thing).

    That is not the case at all right now, the people don’t buy it, and honestly things could not be more different. No one wants intervention. Obviously what the people want won’t stop this train if it’s hell bent on attacking Iran, but I do think it’s something.

  • CoolerOpposide [none/use name]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    70
    ·
    edit-2
    26 days ago

    Well Hexbear crew, looks like our analysis was correct on Israel running low on anti-missile defenses. Israel has between 10-12 days of anti-missile munitions without resupply from the U.S.

    Link to separate discussion post & Link to the article

    Per Washington Post:

    Without resupplies from the United States or greater involvement by U.S. forces, some assessments project Israel can maintain its missile defense for 10 or 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks, said an individual briefed on U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, adding that as early as later this week, Israel’s systems may only be able to intercept a smaller proportion of missiles because of a need to ration defensive munitions. “They will need to select what they want to intercept,” said the individual, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. “The system is already overwhelmed.”

    Given this knowledge, we may be seeing something quite interesting strategically from Iran. I would not be surprised if they’ve figured the right amount of missiles to launch and where in order to draw out the best (highest, aka worst for Israeli stockpile) ratio of anti-missile defenses to ballistic missiles launched. Iran knows that its missile production is more efficient in cost (significantly so) and quantity than anti-missile production.

    Iran is also aware that the United States is probably unlikely to willingly toss all of its anti-missile munitions over to Israel, when those anti-missile munitions are likely to be far more valuable in the event of a PRC reunification with Taiwan that the U.S. intervenes in.

  • CleverOleg [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    71
    ·
    edit-2
    26 days ago

    I know this is fairly well known to most here, but for those who may not be familiar with how US government works:

    In theory, the US should only be able to go to war by approval of Congress. And on paper, this IS how it works. You need an act of congress to declare war.

    However, in reality the US President has virtually unlimited and unilateral power to conduct “war”. So long as you don’t call it “war” and instead call it something like a “policing action”. This has really always been the case in some form but this was really developed and used in the Cold War, when it was said that because of the threat of a nuclear first strike from the USSR, it would be impractical to try and convene congress to declare war as a nuke was in the air. Consequently, I do not believe the US has technically declared war since WWII.

    War is the most serious action a nation state can undertake. The idea that the people (or their representatives) don’t need to be involved in the process really shows how much of a farce western liberal democracy is. This isn’t exactly news to us here as we understand the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie, but I think it’s a good place to start with libs who are going to be angry about how Trump is able to do this (though tbh I think congress would be good with declaring war on Iran here)

  • Z_Poster365 [none/use name]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    93
    ·
    edit-2
    22 days ago

    Pedophile Scott Ritter is tweeting that if American bases and soldiers are attacked by Iran then he stands with America.

    Never trust these opportunist grifting tinpots

  • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    79
    ·
    edit-2
    27 days ago

    Trump has left the G7 and is heading back to Washington DC, and posted these three things on Truth Social

    More very public signalling towards Iran.

    Lindsey Graham joins in

    This is very serious. Anyone on here that lives in Iran, please take as much precautions as possible. Leave if possible.

  • Socialism_Is_The_Alternative [none/use name]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    61
    ·
    edit-2
    26 days ago

    A large batch of Operation True Promise III videos for today.

    A news article containing many impressive videos of the Mossad headquarters and the Glilot military intelligence Unit 8200 base getting pounded today: https://thecradle.co/articles/iran-targets-israels-unit-8200-near-tel-aviv

    One of today’s Iranian missile waves flying into Tel Aviv: https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/06/17/1440959.html

    Another Zionist air defense missile flew back into itself: https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/06/17/1440942.html

    And another Zionist air defense failure: https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/06/17/1441014.html

    Zionist air defense missiles keep detonating too soon (more failures): https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/06/17/1441021.html

    Haifa’s industrial zone on fire: https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/06/17/1439336.html

    Chaos is breaking out in the underground Zionist bunkers: https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/06/17/1439506.html

  • FuckyWucky [none/use name]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    72
    ·
    edit-2
    26 days ago

    Note: I photo shopped the stache

    Germany’s Merz says ‘complete destruction’ of Iran’s nuclear programme possible

    Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said if Iran does not make concessions, the “complete destruction” of its nuclear programme could be “on the agenda”.

    “The Israeli army is obviously unable to accomplish that. It lacks the necessary weapons,” Merz told broadcaster ZDF on the sidelines of the G7 summit. “But the Americans have them.”

    Earlier, President Trump said he wants a “real end” to the Israel-Iran conflict, with Iran “giving up entirely” on nuclear weapons.

    https://aje.io/gn5i1t?update=3781819

    They are all in on it. They can claim how Trump is bad anti-democracy but they’ll align with him on this.

  • CleverOleg [he/him]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    99
    ·
    edit-2
    26 days ago

    I said something to this effect yesterday, but it’s pretty incredible how as soon as there’s a chance of war, the news media gets in line and never questions whether the US should get involved in the first place.

  • MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    62
    ·
    edit-2
    27 days ago

    Important to note that Iran has the type of army that many “alt media experts” think is the future: tonnes of one way attack drones, thousands of ballistic missiles, and almost no air force. Israel has the army that “alt social media experts” call outdated and silly: strong airforce, lots of manned aircraft and stealth aircraft, lots of stand in and stand off air launched munitions and reconnaissance drones.

    Yet the “outdated” Israeli Airforce is dropping bomb after bomb on Tehran and missile cities in Western Iran using manned fast jets, and not a single “game changer” one way attack drone has landed a hit on Israel yet. The ballistic missiles get through, but there’s little counterforce targeting taking place.

    Lesson: don’t listen to so called experts in the alt media space that think one way attack drones can replace an airforce. After the war, Iran needs to build a strong conventional military and air force like Poland (over 30 stealth aircraft in order) or Pakistan (rumoured J-35 customer) for deterrence, it’s clear that one way attack drones can’t replace an airforce. Thank goodness China is building lots of manned stealth aircraft, J-20, J-35, J-36, J-50, at least China knows better than the alt media experts.