Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran’s nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran’s government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.
A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?
And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?
Last week’s thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
the newsmega can have a little ‘is zohran mao or obama’ struggle session as a treat (such as in this subthread) but this is the world newsmega, not the electoralism-mega and so please limit zohran posting to a dull roar. things like zohran struggle sessions are literally exactly what c/electoralism was made for, not the news mega.
along the same lines, zionists and fascists are having a shitfit about zohran and yes it is funny, but let’s try to keep the newsmega to only the dankest of memes and the saltiest of zionist tears. we don’t need to hear about every DC think tankie pondering the orb with bill ackman.
In case you’re wondering how Palestinians are taking the news, here are some reactions to the ceasefire
Below is the announcement in a Jenin-based telegram group
“We were given the choice between war and shame, and we chose shame, and war will be imposed on us in the end…”
https://t.me/jeniincamp/112159
“The Arabs stopped the war on Iran, but they didn’t stop the war on Iraq, nor did they stop the massacre in Gaza, nor did they deter the butcher of Syria.
Do you now realize how dwarves they are?
What cheap people are cheering for these regimes?”
https://t.me/jeniincamp/112165
“Don’t forget your men in Gaza, they are still slaughtering the children of Zion morning and night. May God bless you, O soldiers of Al-Qassam, and may God be pleased with you and satisfy you.“
I just woke up and I’m watching an angry Trump on MSNBC. And he says he’s “not happy” with Iran and Israel. He also said they don’t know “What the fuck they’re doing.” And “fuck” wasn’t even beeped out. What’s going on!
This whole thing goes to show how North Korea is the only non great power sovereign state and only communist states can be trusted to manuever these situations against imperialism.
The DPRK didnt want to be a chinese satelite state or allow significant Chinese influence, had no delusions regarding the west and wanted to chart its own geopolitical course secure from imperialism. So they built the fucking bomb. Even when China in peak post deng pre xi, WTO and West good mode was pissing and crying for them not to , even when they along with Putin’s dumbass joined in the sanctions. Even under the most vicious pressure from the country that had already genocided them. With literally no allies in the entire world. They put their heads down, suffered and persevered but they did it. They didnt have 5% of their population being SK agents with ATGMs hidden in their asses to sabotage them or a political sphere and elite dreaming about sending their kids to harvard and having swiss bank accounts. You guessed it, probably because they were communists.
They would have even done it even if the US carpet bombed them again and hundreds of thosuands were dying and did so without any guarantee that china would actualy help them in that situation despite having a paper somewhere saying they would. They would have turned Seoul into a parking lot with artillery until the last 30.000 people in Pyongyang bunkers and tunnels had a nuke button
And now they are reaping the benefits. Yes most of the world still shuning them and yes they under more pressure and attack than any country other than cuba can imagine. But the geopolitical events and changes created a situation where they can exercise their sovereigty and militarism to upgrade their technologies and energy access from co-benificial ties with russia and China also gives less of a shit to follow a bunch of sanctions they have been following ,and also doesnt want to be left behind in the russia-dprk bromance. And the future looks like more of that.
If they had a fraction of the brainworms iran had they would either be a smoking crater or a chinese dengifying vassal with its teeth taken out which doesnt sound that bad if you dont care about sovereignty between different socialist experiments and nations but whatever
“””ceasefires””” and unending aerial bombardment, israel’s fav combo. Anyways nobody on either side have confirmed this so grain of 🧂. Don’t play into the Zionist psywar
I see Trump’s trying out the lathe, huh. Just announcing things, attempting to speak them into existence. If Iran accepts a ceasefire now I’ll be rather confused; not sure what they think they’ll gain from it.
As for why Iran would enter a ceasefire, hypothetically. After a few days, Iran tried to enter a war of attrition with Israel, firing off small salvos of ballistic missiles at Israel from missile bases in the centre and east of the country where Israel couldn’t reach. However, this limits Iran on the kind of ballistic missiles it can use, Qassem series and Kheibar Shekan-1 don’t have the range for this. The war of attrition strategy also relies on keeping the second line of missile bases, in the centre and east of Iran, safe from Israeli airstrikes. With Israel conducting strikes on Yadz yesterday, 1850km from Tel Aviv directly via the air, the strategy is no longer viable. Both Qadr and Emad, enlarged SCUD B derivatives and the missiles Iran has the most of, the backbone of their missile force/deterrent towards Israel, have less than 1850km range. Kheibar Shekan-2 also has less than 1850km range. Thus if Israel can reach as far as Yadz, these missiles are out of the fight. If Iran were to continue attacks on Israel, they’d be left with the Khorramshahr/R-27 Zyb series, Fattah-1 on an extended range trajectory, and Sejjil. That’s it.
How viable is it to continue the war against Israel with the missile forces in this state? To me this is the definition of not viable. All these three models of missiles are in very limited numbers. Sejjil is more of a technology demonstrator for a multi stage solid fueled ballistic missile than a battlefield weapon, which is why a grand total of 1 has been fired towards Israel so far. The Khorramshahr series (1, 2 and 4), Iran won’t want to fire lots of them, especially 4. These missiles have the largest payload capacity and re entry vehicles, it would be the easiest to make a nuclear warhead for. Fattah-1 is Iran’s most advanced ballistic missile, how many of them do they have, and how’s the performance affected by extending the range beyond 1850km, the original range is 1400km. Might be fine for Yemen to do this, but not for Iran who will have different strategic aims.
It also has to be noted that Israel were only able to strike Yadz after the US offensive intervention, where they fired 31 anti radiation missiles towards Iranian air defence radars according to statements by the US general. Opening up more air corridors into Iran has been a very convenient side effect of the US operation for Israel.
Hexbear succumbing to braindead doomerism yet again
THE CEASEFIRE WILL NOT HOLD, Israeli fascist politics will not allow it to, as the damage is assessed and censorship is lifted the Israeli public will demand revenge. Obviously that will take the form of more massacres against Palestinians but everyone including the zionists know it was Iran who bloodied Israel’s nose, once the breath of relief is made the fury will re-emerge
Iran’s public is beyond fury and the reformists are going to pay a massive electoral and social cost for their incompetence and capitulationism
The neoconservative didn’t get what they wanted, what you think these people even understand the concept of backtracking, whoever in the Iranian military or establishment came up with the idea to attack the Qatar base is a genius, the neocons WILL NOT LET THAT GO UNPUNISHED
Everything points to another imperial miscalculation, I give it a week or two
It’s likely Iran will now have months or years to reinforce their defense.
I don’t know how they should address their internal security problems. Stricter movement controls, firewalls, surveillance, social welfare, affirmative action, federalization, seems like a lot to accomplish in a short time
For air defenses, they’ll likely need to look to China since Russia is occupied with Ukranian drones. For China, wouldn’t the value of being able to test their equipment (Their personnel as well if they’re discreet) to gain experience at running an air defense network against western 5th gen planes be extremely valuable, even more than the cost of the batteries they send? US retaliation would be sending more Patriots and PrSM to Taiwan?
Explosions in Qatar :), could be interceptions :(
🇵🇸🇮🇷| Palestinian resistance groups have become stronger thanks to Iran’s attacks
In an article by Yedioth Ahronoth, it admits that Israeli forces have been weakened in the Gaza Strip and currently are on the defense rather than offense.
It says the Palestinian resistance are taking back momentum, especially in Khan Younis, as many Israeli brigades have been withdrawn from the Strip due to Iran’s attacks.
Gaza has regained strategic focus after Iran’s attacks, says the article.
@FotrosResistancee
This is why Iran can not give the entity status quo and peace. Peace is genocide
Do the libs in charge of foreign policy in Iran get it yet? Do they understand how demoralizing a ceasefire is to these brave soldiers?
(Could be a false alarm but) Telegram channels I’m following announced five minutes ago that Tehran, Shiraz, and Hamadan just activated their air defenses. The entity can’t help bombing brown folks, even when it would clearly help them a great deal to take a break for at least a day or two.
The game theory academic who became famous on youtube a day or two ago is predicting that the USA is going to do a (suicidal) ground invasion of Iran. I can also hear Justin Podur saying that all this shit with Trump getting angry at Netanyahu is just for show.
I thought it was a joke, but the CNBC guys really compared Zohran’s win to the Batman movie where Bain makes all the Wall Street guys walk on ice until they fall in.
[edit] https://x.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1937914652450492474
heard from family in Irbid jordan missiles seem to be headed towards the zionist entity rn
also found out multiple missiles have fallen in irbid near my familys houses and injured multiple ppl. curse jordan for shooting missiles down over their own people
Edit: some missiles may have been intercepted, cousin said at least 2 fell in his neighborhood
15 second clip my cousin sent of what i think is interception attempts out of his bedroom window, footage over Irbid Jordan about 15 min ago:
Lots of talk about Iran’s nuclear facilities. Quick breakdown:
- Fordow: the main enrichment halls and cascade facilities directly targeted by 12x GBU-57 MOPs, Iran filled the entrances and exits with soil beforehand. Israel targeted the entrances and exits afterwards.
- Isfahan: no attempt to directly target the underground facilities, underground enrichment halls/cascade facilities and tunnels. The entrances and exits were targeted by Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles to entomb the facility, along with the above ground facilities. According to the IAEA, this is where most of the 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium was stored. There are also rumours of a new facility near Isfahan.
- Natanz, old facility: Above ground facilities destroyed by Israel, the main enrichment hall targeted by 2x GBU-57 MOPs.
- Natanz new facility: no attempt to target it. However, Iran hadn’t moved any centrifuges or enriched uranium there before the war started.
Which is what a lot of people are talking about the strikes only setting the Iranian nuclear programme by “months”. Even if all strikes were successful, Iran could move new or existing centrifuges and enriched uranium to the new Natanz facility which wasn’t even touched. They could excavate the entrances and exits at Isfahan and take all of the centrifuges and enriched uranium out of it, which will be undamaged. Israel will likely be looking for a “Lebanon style ceasefire” with a mechanism that allows them to take military action in certain circumstances. A hypothetical mechanism, along the lines of keeping nuclear facilities entombed, otherwise Israel can take military action on any attempts to excavate material or move material to the new facility in Natanz.
