Oh no, you!

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Joined 2 days ago
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Cake day: November 3rd, 2024

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  • BuT tHeY wErE WrOnG iN 2016!1

    Yes, and no. They estimated a slightly higher chance for a Hillary win over a Donald win, but they were well within the margin of polling error, and they have been for every election. Plus people have a tendency of over-valuing a “51% chance to win”.

    While this is good news, it could mean nothing.

    EDIT: 538 explained it better than I ever could:
    "Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically ahead.”









  • Each to their own I’d say, but I’m all for rule bending.

    I’ve always been up front about modding based on what I consider reasonable interpretation of the spirit of the rules combined with common sense. This means that some things that technically should or shouldn’t get deleted gets a treatment it wouldn’t get by strict interpretation of the rules in their literal meaning.

    That being said, my interpretation of the rules may not necessarily conform with those of other mods, so I rarely complain if someone else decides to overrule me.