FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker shows Joe Biden has a 53 percent chance of winning the election, while Trump has a 46 percent chance.

Polls are crap

It’s a little bit notable how they change over time, but mostly it is just a bunch of poor methodology noise

But, I do feel it’s relevant to point out that even in polling land Biden has been gaining for the last few weeks and it’s notable which media outlets are pretending it is the opposite of that (like severely the opposite) and to wonder why that is

  • mozz@mbin.grits.devOP
    31·
    2 months ago

    ?

    That’s not how it works

    You’re betting with the casino here, not directly with other users. When you bet with the casino about who will win the election, the casino’s “house cut” is baked into the non reciprocal nature of the odds on the two sides (plus whatever fees). If they have the odds wrong enough, then their expected value can go negative. As you said, they don’t gamble, so they do their damnedest to make sure that doesn’t happen.