Pre-convention, ABC - Wash Post - Ipsos poll had Harris leading Trump 49% - 45% in a two person race.
This one has Harris 52% - 46%.
The gender gap is part of the convention bounce
Is this the media selling clicks and not facts again?
And r2o is spreading them. Typical day in the lemmyverse.
isn’t a net 2% gain within the margin of error?
Both pre and post convention polls have MOE.
so if a net change between the two is within the margin of error, you can’t state with confidence that it’s an increase and not just random noise
I suppose that confidence would need to have it’s own margin of error. But it seems silly to say we can’t say anything from such a significant difference.
I’d say the likelihood is still on the side that Harris is doing better than Trump.What? I can say with reasonably certainty that if other polls match their results, which they do, then the MOE is meaningless. I can also say that since the same pollster and ABC took both polls, ABC is straight lying when they say there was no bounce. Their own data says otherwise.
I can say with reasonably certainty that if other polls match their results, which they do, then the MOE is meaningless
no that isn’t how statistics works
Their own data says otherwise.
if you look at only their own data then no, there was a statistically negligible increase
FFS. You don’t know how polls work. There are always small increases when you reach 50% The more important issue in these polls is that Trump has a ceiling of ~46%
GTFO with your nonsensical facts. The numbers didn’t go up when they went up!
Edit: /joking of course
Maybe she’d have done better if she’d taken the opportunity to distance herself from Biden’s genocide policy.
Yes, I think they should be more up front about helping Ukraine more too.
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Women don’t count?
The convention was extremely underwhelming on the topic of climate change. When she was vaguely understood people were giving her the benefit of the doubt but it seems she’s just another liberal leaning centrist.
As I see it, Harris beats most on the issues, she is not Bernie or AOC, but among what’s realistically possible, she is better than I expected.
And she absolutely brings good stuff to the table IMO.I don’t think she has claimed otherwise. I may really really want a leftist but the Democrats as a party are largely barely right of center.
Harris was an early sponsor of the green new deal - she is now profracking. She’s absolutely moved noticeably to the right.
I can only hope that’s to not deter voters the same way coal was an issue in WV in 2000. Otherwise I hate it.
And I’m happy to let someone barely right of center be a placeholder for a future progressive if the alternative is a goddamn Nazi.
I don’t think anyone arguing otherwise is an actual leftist, just someone who wants to piss in people’s Cheerios as much as possible.
Amazing how alienating vast swathes of your potential voters by proping up a genocide doesn’t improve your poll numbers.
Truly shocking stuff. (It was not in fact shocking)
They don’t want to win. They want to fundraise.
Edit - Your boos mean nothing. I’ve seen what makes you cheer.
