I mean in terms of percentages.
And I don’t necessarily mean three full terms. 2.5 terms or 2.1 terms or anything nontrivially more than 2 (like, 10 minutes more doesn’t count) would qualify.
Almost zero, but not because I believe in American democracy. I think the techno-fascist machine will grind forward regardless of Trump being in office.
Ya i think people still aren’t seeing that the Billionaire class is why he won. He isn’t pulling the strings he is just the puppet.
Exactly, a relevant passage from This Soviet World by Anna Louise Strong
Exactly. If it wasn’t clear in 2016, it certainly is now - Trump is a symptom, not the root problem
The problem has been clear for over a century now.
Democrats are practically shoving the voting base towards trump. Their whole selling point is “saving the system that’s starving you”.
Trump promised to destroy it, and destroy it he will. Not for us of course.
Same thing happened in 1930s Germany. Nornal parties were just gonna keep things going, while people had to use wheelbarrows of cash to buy a loaf and Hitler promised to destroy it all and make Germany the greatest its ever been.
You might believe that the following facts are besides your point, but I still want to get this straight:
- Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic reached its peak in 1923
- the NSDAP (the nazi party) got only 2% of the vote in the 1928 elections
- Hitler rose to power in 1933, after getting over 40% of the vote.
Note that there were 4 national elections between 1930 and 1933. The Weimar Republic was about as stable politically as a house of cards on a trampoline.
It’s still true that part of the success of Hitler’s party was due to former non-voters losing fate in the established parties, especially in regards to economic policy, but it is not as direct of a connection as your comment makes it out to be.
Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic reached its peak in 1923
One thing about this, is that inflation peaking or stabilizing does not undo the previous years of inflation. Just because prices are no longer rising out of control, doesn’t mean that people’s wages suddenly catch up with the price hikes which have already happened. It’s part of the reason consumer confidence can lag so far behind top line economic numbers. While the hyperinflation of the 1920’s may not have directly caused the rise of the NSDAP, it’s lingering effects and resentment caused by it, likely played some role.
Trump changes constitution to allow himself additional terms. Monkey paw curls. Obama term 3 confirmed.
I’m kind of hoping Trump kicks the bucket before the end of this term. Keep feeding him hamberders.
zero. it would require 2/3rds of the senate and that will not happen. they barely have the house.
If they want to do it by the book. Could just say the election is postponed due to martial law and the invasion from Mexico or Canada or whoever really it doesn’t seem to matter.
High chance he dies or goes full dementia in the next four years though. If he were 50 the chances of him stealing another term would be a lot higher. Prob just rig it more than it already is so they can’t lose and pick his successor.
Martial law does not prevent our elections from happening. That’s not “by the book”.
US has been at war most of its existence. That’s never prevented an election from occurring
Changing the amendment would be by the book. I’m saying they can just do anyway and tie it up in the courts that they control. And he has congress so he could whip up a frenzy and postpone the date indefinitely. If he’s still alive and has the threat of court cases restarting and new ones for whatever he gets up to this term you’ll need to literally drag him out he’ll have nothing to lose.
None of that is by the book. There’s no mechanism that lets the president stay in power by “tying things up in court”. Any attempt to do what you describe is just a coup.
And there’s zero chance that amendment gets passed. We can barely get a simple 50% majority for the budget passed.
Sir I’m saying doing it properly through changing the amendment is by the books and NOT what they’ll do. They’ll do a coup again.
After all we just witnessed?
Four years stalling courts and avoiding punishment for insurrection, theft of classified documents, etc.
Getting legal permission to break any law he pleases.
Convincing even democrats that tge constitution, specifically the Fourteenth amendment, means nothing and isn’t worth acting on.
Openly planning the worst possible cabinet.
Not having any investigation or action on votes from targeted minorities get Jim Crow’d away.
No recounts when suspicious vote trends are spotted.
Survival of an assassination attempt.
… Yeah I’m going high. 70% chance minumum if he wants to. He could just order a public hit on the next in line as a presidential act. Clearly no one will stop him.
There should not BE a timeline where he succeeded the second time. The fact that there is implies he can do literally anything he wants.
I suspect he won’t do another two full terms, but not because of any inherent virtue in the system. I think it’ll just come down to biology. He’s 78, not in good health anyway and about to enter a very high-stress job. If he’s still going at 86 I’ll be surprised.
And that’s assuming the cabal of demented fascists he’s assembled around him don’t tear him apart the second he shows any sign of weakness or of no longer being useful to them, which they definitely will.
i agree - he can change any law he wants
About 50/50. SCOTUS has already ruled that the 3rd section of the 14th amendment to the US constitution doesn’t mean what it plainly says, so there’s no real hope that they’d uphold the 22nd.
The only reason I place it that low is because he’s ripe for a fatal heart attack or stroke.
Fortunately, there’s no way something so unlikely as 7% could realistically happen. The odds would be a thousand to one.
X-Com? Is that you?
Maybe I should bet on this for once?
Greater than 50%, mostly due to the complete spinlessness of the greater USian population. People used to riot for less, and often.
There is a lot of land, and a lot of people in the US. Even if we saw people rioting, there would be hundreds of much smaller riots fighting for local rights.
1% or less.
-
They probably wont nullify the 2 term limit, can’t easily go back and after trump, will there be a democrat monarch?
-
He wants fame and wealth, he will burn everything to get it. In this term he will burn the most of the bridges with his backers.
-
His actions will accelerate the victory or death of his backers. Either his backers wont need him or cant back him, so he probably will get waning support.
-
He may not live until the end of his term, let alone a third.
-
He is too prideful, he wont bow to being a VP and will pull something that will sabotage the president on ticket.
-
U.S.A. or the world may be destroyed in the next 5 or so years.
-
He will try at least 1 coup this term, i’d be suprised if it wasn’t more. He will fail and/or drag the nation to civil war in the process. He doesn’t have the backing of the army and not all states are under him
For any of these reasons or a combination therof, makes him serving a third term highly, highly unlikely.
-
1 percent. There’s too much they would need to do in four years to not have an election and elections are done by the states not the federal government. So there will definitely be an election. As far as getting re-elected it would take draconian measures for the exact same reason. He’d need 270 electoral votes worth of states to blatantly go against the Constitution.
The only way he remains in office past January 20th 2029 is by refusing to leave and surrounding himself with loyalists. Thus the 1 percent chance. It could work if a million things go exactly right.
And him not dying before then too
It can’t happen without some major fuckening from the Supreme Court which would absolutely end it’s legitimacy and would probably end in standoffs between US Marshalls and blue state courts and federal courts in liberal circuits as they just completely ignore the Supreme Court going forward.
The text of the 22nd amendment couldn’t be interpreted any other way except as written: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”
If he lives to the end of this term, 100% that he’ll try for a third.
By then, it’ll be a battle between Republican Nazis who back him blindly, and Republican Nazis who want a more competent puppet in power. Oh, and people who aren’t actively supporting fascism. I doubt they’ll make a difference.
That depends on two things.
Will he live that long?
Will the people who own him let him have it?
- The scaremongering about this is hysterical.
You’ve got four more years of the orange clown and then he’ll finally fuck off.
I admire your optimism. It would take a constitutional amendment, which I don’t think he would have any issues getting past the GOP Congress. After that it’s less likely, but still possible with his shenanigans. I think the only reason it wouldn’t happen is he croaks first.
But a constitutional amendment requires a two thirds vote in congress. It’s an even higher bar to clear than the filibuster. There aren’t enough republican seats to do it on their own. It would have to have bipartisan support.
Plus 3/4 of state legislatures to ratify which would be another high bar
There’s a reason why there’s so few constitutional amendments
I think both parts are doable, and I see no reason Republicans wouldn’t try. It seems likely that we are going to see Federal election laws over the next couple years to strengthen GOP control, in addition to the local and state level laws we are already dealing with. This is all going to further strengthen their hold and I think we could see 2/3 majority in both houses in 2026.
Honestly I think the 3/4 would be the easier part. Since it’s done by state instead of electorates he just needs 38 states, and he got 31 to vote for him. We’re also talking about state legislatures, not voters, which means the shenanigans above will also be effective here.
I don’t think this is going to be Trump’s first step; this is going to be the capstone on a campaign to secure power for the party forever.
I am sincerely hoping I’m wrong, but the last decade has shown me I am not nearly pessimistic enough.
Elections are not run federally, they are run by each state which makes it harder for Republicans to be as aggressive as they’d like to be
Mind you they lost a US house seat this cycle even with Trump winning. They have just a 3 seat majority. They would need a gain of +70 seats in the house in a midterm environment to get to 2/3
On the senate side, Republicans would need to pick up 12(!) seats to get 2/3. In the 2026 map, that’s extraordinarily difficult and would require winning extremely deep blue seats. 66 senators is a lot. They would have to win literally every single senate seat up for election in 2026
Assuming they win all the solid red + lean red seats, they would need to defend both senators in North Carolina and Maine to keep 53. Then they’d have to flip the tossups of Michigan and Georgia to get to 55. Then the lean blue Minnesota senate seat to get to 56.
Then the very likely blue seats of New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire to get to 60. Then to get to 66, they would need to win the safe blue states of Oregon, Illinois, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, and Rhode Island to get 66
Midterms are usually very unfavorable to the party in power. Even with more stringent voter laws, that would be a tall ask. Flipping safe blue senate senates where dems have state and local control would be insane
And you’d have to flip a large number of state legislature in deep blue states too
5%. Pray this timeline does not roll a 5 or less in a d100
A more interesting question to me would be "What are the chances that the 2028 elections are allowes to be carried out freely (e.g. without the governing powers forcing the outcome they want)?
