There is no possible world where Canada fights a trade war with the US and has a complete and total victory where Trump admits utter defeat. That’s just fantasy. In international political disputes people are always given the chance to save face – that’s just how shit works.
You are essentially saying that Canada knows that it can’t win a trade war if push comes to shove. What that means is that whenever this situation happens, Canada is going to have to give up something, even if it’s a symbolic gesture, every time Trump pulls this stunt.
Trump already knows this. Again, take a look at the links. They are openly saying that they know the US has the upper hand and intends to use that to extract further concessions from Canada. The only question then becomes how much is Canada willing to appease Trump before they say “Enough.”? And what happens when (not if. When) Trump no longer settles for symbolic, face-saving gestures?
The “what about a month from now” argument would also always be true. Even if he announced a permanent end to tariffs he could still announce tariffs tomorrow.
Well this is always the case everywhere. But 99.9999999% of the time, you don’t have to worry about the US reneging on its end of the deal on a whim. Every country knows that the other country could announce tariffs any time. But they typically have reasonable assurances that they won’t. Trump offers no such assurances beyond “I have altered the deal. Pray I do not alter it further.”
Trump stared down Canada and Mexico and lost. He caved. It was obvious that he was caving when the White House started softening their messaging midday and saying that everything was just a big misunderstanding. The only concession he got was the ability to save face. Mexico re-announced an already in-place commitment. Canada announced some symbolic nonsense. That $1.3B in your original comment was announced more than a month before Trump took office.
But it was announced and formed based on Trump talking points after the 2024 election. Being negotiated under Biden at the tail end of his administration is basically semantics since the whole thing had Trump’s fingerprints all over it anyway. Remember, Trump was promising to enact these tariffs in November. The deal was finalized in December, largely to appease the incoming Trump administration in the first place and in hopes that this whole mess of bullshit could be avoided. Of course Trump decided it wasn’t good enough, and here we are.
Define “win a trade war.” If Trump’s definition is ‘Canada becomes non-viable as a country and agrees to become a cherished 51st state,’ then the US can’t win a trade war either. The US has a much larger economy and can inflict more damage on Canada, but the US still can’t “win” in the extreme way you’re talking about. ‘No one wins and everyone suffers’ is basically a defining characteristic of trade wars.
Just in the auto industry, half a million Canadians would lose their jobs. It’s easy to say that you shouldn’t “concede” symbolism when you’re not responsible for people’s well-being. Again, there was always going to be a face-saving gesture. Your expectation that there wouldn’t be is unrealistic. Agreeing to some border theatre nonsense (to help solve imaginary problems!) that Canada would’ve done anyway had someone just asked nicely is not a big deal. Canada didn’t need an economic threat to… join a task force that was a Canadian proposal to begin with. The only reason that didn’t already exist is because ~0% of the fentanyl getting into the US is coming from Canada.
Well this is always the case everywhere. But 99.9999999% of the time, you don’t have to worry about the US reneging on its end of the deal on a whim. Every country knows that the other country could announce tariffs any time. But they typically have reasonable assurances that they won’t. Trump offers no such assurances beyond “I have altered the deal. Pray I do not alter it further.”
And?
Canada and Mexico have no control over this.
“We’re entering into a trade war because you might in the future go back on not having a trade war and start a trade war!”
And you’re talking about this like there are no costs to Trump or the US for doing this. There are. He blinked because it was going to cost him. As much as he can say, ‘this is a necessary sacrifice,’ he’s not personally willing to sacrifice a goddamn thing. Those costs will increase over time and skyrocket as we approach midterms.
But it was announced and formed based on Trump talking points after the 2024 election.
Yes, they said “this fucking moron keeps talking about imaginary border shit. Let’s just pass this and hopefully it shuts him up.”
But that would’ve happened even if he didn’t sign the tariff order. You’re attributing it to Trump signing the tariff order and saying that Canada has just conceded it. That’s not true.
You are essentially saying that Canada knows that it can’t win a trade war if push comes to shove. What that means is that whenever this situation happens, Canada is going to have to give up something, even if it’s a symbolic gesture, every time Trump pulls this stunt.
Trump already knows this. Again, take a look at the links. They are openly saying that they know the US has the upper hand and intends to use that to extract further concessions from Canada. The only question then becomes how much is Canada willing to appease Trump before they say “Enough.”? And what happens when (not if. When) Trump no longer settles for symbolic, face-saving gestures?
Well this is always the case everywhere. But 99.9999999% of the time, you don’t have to worry about the US reneging on its end of the deal on a whim. Every country knows that the other country could announce tariffs any time. But they typically have reasonable assurances that they won’t. Trump offers no such assurances beyond “I have altered the deal. Pray I do not alter it further.”
But it was announced and formed based on Trump talking points after the 2024 election. Being negotiated under Biden at the tail end of his administration is basically semantics since the whole thing had Trump’s fingerprints all over it anyway. Remember, Trump was promising to enact these tariffs in November. The deal was finalized in December, largely to appease the incoming Trump administration in the first place and in hopes that this whole mess of bullshit could be avoided. Of course Trump decided it wasn’t good enough, and here we are.
Define “win a trade war.” If Trump’s definition is ‘Canada becomes non-viable as a country and agrees to become a cherished 51st state,’ then the US can’t win a trade war either. The US has a much larger economy and can inflict more damage on Canada, but the US still can’t “win” in the extreme way you’re talking about. ‘No one wins and everyone suffers’ is basically a defining characteristic of trade wars.
Just in the auto industry, half a million Canadians would lose their jobs. It’s easy to say that you shouldn’t “concede” symbolism when you’re not responsible for people’s well-being. Again, there was always going to be a face-saving gesture. Your expectation that there wouldn’t be is unrealistic. Agreeing to some border theatre nonsense (to help solve imaginary problems!) that Canada would’ve done anyway had someone just asked nicely is not a big deal. Canada didn’t need an economic threat to… join a task force that was a Canadian proposal to begin with. The only reason that didn’t already exist is because ~0% of the fentanyl getting into the US is coming from Canada.
And?
Canada and Mexico have no control over this.
“We’re entering into a trade war because you might in the future go back on not having a trade war and start a trade war!”
And you’re talking about this like there are no costs to Trump or the US for doing this. There are. He blinked because it was going to cost him. As much as he can say, ‘this is a necessary sacrifice,’ he’s not personally willing to sacrifice a goddamn thing. Those costs will increase over time and skyrocket as we approach midterms.
Yes, they said “this fucking moron keeps talking about imaginary border shit. Let’s just pass this and hopefully it shuts him up.”
But that would’ve happened even if he didn’t sign the tariff order. You’re attributing it to Trump signing the tariff order and saying that Canada has just conceded it. That’s not true.