Ukraine, however, has begun efforts to replicate Russia’s BAI efforts on a limited scale in the Russian near rear in the Pokrovsk direction and other areas of the frontline. Expanding Ukraine’s own BAI capabilities could effectively counter Russia’s ability to advance by denying Russian forces the ability to assemble and sustain troops in near rear areas. Ukraine has systems capable of striking Russian near rear areas and has been increasing such strikes in recent months, but needs support to significantly expand its production of mid-range strike systems.

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This requires developing weapons with sufficient payloads that can effectively strike targets 30 to 120 kilometers from the frontline, and smart mission planning to cripple Russia’s operational logistics to push Russian forces’ assembly areas further into the rear. Continued Western support for Ukraine remains the center of gravity for this war and is vital to Ukraine’s defense, innovation, and sovereignty. Continued European military assistance and European-financed American weapons sales to Ukraine could also strengthen Ukraine’s defenses and possibly reverse some Russian gains, assuming assistance comes timely and in sufficient quantities.