• RaincoatsGeorge@lemmy.zip
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    48
    arrow-down
    1
    ·
    11 months ago

    Polls are completely unreliable, especially this far out. They predicted trumps loss the first go around and we endured 4 years of that POS. They predicted red waves the last 2 election cycles and it never manifested.

    Its a problem with the techniques they’re using to gather data I guess. Whether it’s the cold calling or what, I don’t know, but it clearly isn’t effective to get honest assessments anymore.

    That being said it will never not blow my mind that it’s even slightly close. Last election millions of Americans sat through 4 years of trump and said yep that worked out great for me. Everyone I talked to who was in that camp had various incorrect reasons but you don’t need to be right, you just have to feel like you’re right.

    I think the reality is that Biden is not and has never been a popular candidate. His age works against him. Kamala is equally unappealing and doesn’t help things either. The biggest problem right now is that Biden has come out very strongly pro Israel (which every single president has done including Trump) and he has not done enough to condemn the Israeli genocide. Millenials and Gen z are at the very least anti genocide and largely pro Palestine so that’s not helping his case, although they’re short sighted if they assume Trump would be the better answer here.

    If Trump wins our democracy is over. ‘Oh you’re overreacting’. Yeah they said that to me before Trumps presidency and I was correct then as I am correct now.

    We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.

    Vote like you value this country. Convince others to vote. Apathy is a vote for Trump. Choosing not to vote for Biden because you’re anti Israel is voting for Trump, who is also going to continue right along supporting Israel.

    • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      11
      arrow-down
      7
      ·
      11 months ago

      We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.

      This has been every election since 2012, and the discussion doesn’t happen.

      • RaincoatsGeorge@lemmy.zip
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        26
        arrow-down
        4
        ·
        11 months ago

        No I don’t think that’s accurate. If McCain or Romney had won I never had a fear that our democracy would have eroded. I certainly wouldn’t have agreed with all of their policy choices but both men I think are old guard politicians and would have largely done the job with an undercurrent of honor that just doesn’t exist with trump. I never would have had any fear that if they lost the next election they wouldn’t peacefully turn over power.

        With trump all of that has changed. The only reason his coup didn’t work is because most everyone involved was dense as fuck and couldn’t come up with a cohesive strategy to get it done. Give him another chance and 4 years to prepare and he will find success.

        Biden is not the candidate I wanted, but he’s the candidate we’ve got, and in our broken political system that’s as good as it’s going to get. We can talk about 3rd parties and changing the system but none of that is happening before 24.

        The polls are right about one thing. Trump definitely could win again. That should be very alarming to any rational American.

        • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          5
          arrow-down
          6
          ·
          11 months ago

          Biden is not the candidate I wanted, but he’s the candidate we’ve got, and in our broken political system that’s as good as it’s going to get.

          Ever.

          • MagicShel@programming.dev
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            6
            arrow-down
            2
            ·
            11 months ago

            Biden has been the most progressive President in probably 40 years and the most effective since probably Clinton. He wouldn’t be my first choice, but even if your silly little one-word retort is true that’s a big improvement on the past.

            • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              2
              ·
              11 months ago

              Biden has been the most progressive President in probably 40 years

              Oh yeah. Building Trump’s wall for him and funding genocide are super progressive.

              Obama passed the ACA. That’s more progressive than everything Biden has passed put together. And no, that’s nothing to crow about either.

              • MagicShel@programming.dev
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                1
                arrow-down
                1
                ·
                edit-2
                11 months ago

                Obama also murdered people with drones and caved to Republicans when he had the power to pursue a more progressive agenda. He bailed out businesses instead of people. He did nothing about torturing prisoners of war. Don’t give me this Obama progressive bullshit. ACA was a republican plan. Obama was not by any stretch of the imagination a progressive. He was an okay President and a great orator, but his policies were conservative democrat.

                • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  2
                  ·
                  11 months ago

                  Don’t give me this Obama progressive bullshit. ACA was a republican plan.

                  And yet it was more progressive than anything Biden has passed. Don’t give me this Biden progressive bullshit.

                  • MagicShel@programming.dev
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    1
                    ·
                    11 months ago

                    Well you’re just wrong. Obama was not as progressive as Biden and believe me I was shocked by both. The proof is in the policies.

                    Oh and being an ally of Israel is universal for both parties. Whoever was in office would’ve supported them. Obama certainly had some extremely disappointing foreign policy as well.

        • PugJesus@kbin.social
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          6
          arrow-down
          7
          ·
          edit-2
          11 months ago

          No, no, you don’t get it, if you let the fascists win this time, we’ll TOTALLY win next time. It’ll be Our Turn, or something.

          Accelerationists aren’t arguing in good faith. They’re useful idiots for fascists who’ll say anything to discourage voting for viable candidates out of the delusion that making things worse will magically make things better.

          • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            13
            ·
            11 months ago

            “Everyone to my left is all the way to my right.”

            I’m voting for Biden. He’s unpopular and the party’s messaging is dogshit, but I’m voting for him. You’re fooling yourself if you think our current messaging is going to bring in all the votes we need.

            If the party expects us to believe that there will totally be discussion about what the party’s left wants this time, maybe there should have been some discussion the last three times they said that.

            • RaincoatsGeorge@lemmy.zip
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              2
              ·
              11 months ago

              Basically my take. My view is that we need the old guard centrists to die off and we need to see more millenials and Gen z step into political positions.

              It is of course a double edged sword. If you reformed the democratic party to actually adhere to current popular liberal progressive policies you would see a lot more shit getting done. But the millenials and Gen z Republicans are all cartoonishly evil and we are eventually going to have only maga qanon uneducated conspiratards making up the other political party.

              The left has to win every election from here to the end of time. The loonies only need to win one more.

              • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                11 months ago

                The left has to win every election from here to the end of time. The loonies only need to win one more.

                Party leadershit makes sure the left never gets past the primaries. The loonies will win before that changes.

            • MagicShel@programming.dev
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              3
              arrow-down
              2
              ·
              11 months ago

              There is also a total failure to understand that as much as the online community is solidly to the left of democrats, the policies don’t play as well to middle America. I believe in gun regulation, but if a candidate’s platform goes too hard on that they will lose MI and PA for sure. UBI? You better believe that’s a loser. Doesn’t matter how good the policy is, the messaging terrifies people.

              I fucking love Bernie. That is a dude with integrity and heart. I wish he’d been elected. But he would’ve lost the general election (except maybe 2016 - I suspect only Hillary could’ve lost to Trump, but in hindsight it’s easy to say maybe we shouldn’t have taken the losing path). Candidates you love but can’t win aren’t going to help anyone. Biden has proven himself against Trump and no one else has. I’m damn sure happy he’s running.

              • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                11 months ago

                There is also a total failure to understand that as much as the online community is solidly to the left of democrats, the policies don’t play as well to middle America.

                Four decades of moving to the right to (ostensibly) please centrists’ notion of middle America, and your poll numbers are dropping against a literal fascist. You need the votes of the left that party leadership hates. We’re already funding genocide. How much farther do the right do you suppose we can move?

                  • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    English
                    arrow-up
                    1
                    ·
                    edit-2
                    11 months ago

                    I’m not a Democrat if that’s what you think.

                    Fine. Four decades of moving to the right to (ostensibly) please centrists’ notion of middle America, and Democrats’ poll numbers are dropping against a literal fascist. Democrats need the votes of the left that party leadership hates. We’re already funding genocide. How much farther do the right do you suppose we can move?

                    Now can you try addressing this instead of trying to divert?

      • return2ozma@lemmy.worldOP
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        8
        arrow-down
        4
        ·
        11 months ago

        2020: “Elect Biden and once he’s POTUS then we can push him left!” … They never pushed him left.

        • Thecornershop@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          12
          arrow-down
          4
          ·
          11 months ago

          So vote for the white nationalist Fascist instead?? Yeah that’s what the left should do.

          How about instead you get this drowning US democracy onto the safety of the beach then you can start resuscitating it.

          • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            11 months ago

            So vote for the white nationalist Fascist instead?? Yeah that’s what the left should do.

            Or maybe the right wing of the party should listen for the very first time.

            • Thecornershop@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              9
              arrow-down
              1
              ·
              11 months ago

              Maybe people should wake the fuck up, think rationally and realised that there is one party in this game that at least has a sense of government obligations to the parts of society that need extra help, and for the greater good, and another party that has taken money from the people and funneled it into the hands of billionaires, openly oppressed the majority of the population and ARE OPENLY FUCKING FASCIST.

              But the " Dems aren’t doing enough"

              Fuck me.

              This isn’t even considering the captured media landscape, the dark money from faceless corporate interests, the nation states and fucked up billionaire macavellian wanna be dickheads that all flows to keeping the Dems down and the fascist machine rolling.

              But the " Dems aren’t doing enough"

              Fuck me.

              Wake up. Look around. Vote. Fight Fascism.

              • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                1
                arrow-down
                1
                ·
                11 months ago

                Wake up. Look around. Vote. Fight Fascism.

                By voting for the party that has been fighting progressives and capitulating to fascists for decades now.

            • RaincoatsGeorge@lemmy.zip
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              8
              ·
              11 months ago

              Hes tried to cancel student debt (and for some people he’s been successful), he’s taken steps to reform federal Marijuana laws, through his support of Ukraine he has effectively crippled one of our biggest enemies without the loss of a single American soldier, the economy under Biden is rebounding post covid with record low levels of unemployment, he’s passed pro lgbtq legislation, improved access to care for veterans, put more minorities and women in government positions, including one on the Supreme Court, than any other president in history. The list goes on.

              The meme is that Joe Biden is a confused old man. He is old, but he’s one of the most effective politicians in our lifetime. I don’t agree with all of his policies but don’t get sucked into the lies and falsehoods that are spreading across the internet.

              Sometimes I think it’s better for people to think about what history books will show in 30 years. When the dust settles and we look back at a president’s legacy it’s often a much different story than when we were living through it. When Nixon was in the white house the county was divided with many people supporting him even as Watergate blew up. But do we remember the position of those people? No. They were wrong. When emotions were taken out of the equation and historians could go back and look at what actually happened we learned just how much of a racist criminal piece of shit Nixon was, how he killed thousands of service men and civilians for political gain. None of this is disputed, it’s just the facts of how things played out. Biden and Trump will get the same treatment. I don’t think anyone with half a brain has any illusions about what they will say about trump, but if we solely went by Bidens presidency up to now and gave it that treatment he would be seen favorably. That might not be what you would like to hear, but it’s the objective truth.

              Now you are correct, the dems need to be hammering the shit out of this message and make sure people don’t get fooled by the misinformation that gets spread invariably around election time, but to suggest nothings been accomplished and that the dems haven’t done anything is categorically false.

              • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                English
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                11 months ago

                he’s taken steps to reform federal Marijuana laws

                “We’re looking into it” isn’t an accomplishment. But I’m sure you can whip this into “He’s the most pro-cannabis president in the past 730 years!” or whatever nonsense puffery centrists use when they want progressives to accept changing nothing as progress.

                If you want your other claims to have credibility, don’t mix them with bullshit.

                • RaincoatsGeorge@lemmy.zip
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  1
                  ·
                  11 months ago

                  I disagree completely. I think there’s a need to do it the right way and so far that is all tracking along. My belief is that he’s going to make a point of federally decriminalizing right before the election. Yes it hasn’t happened yet, but we are closer than we have ever been and hes the most pro decriminalization president we have ever had. Full stop.

                  • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    English
                    arrow-up
                    1
                    ·
                    11 months ago

                    I disagree completely. I think there’s a need to do it the right way and so far that is all tracking along. My belief is that he’s going to make a point of federally decriminalizing right before the election.

                    Until it happens, it’s not an accomplishment.

                    hes the most pro decriminalization president we have ever had. Full stop.

                    Whaddaya know. You said the thing. I don’t give credit for pretending to try.

        • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          6
          arrow-down
          1
          ·
          11 months ago

          Precisely. It was a steaming crock of shit then, and has no credibility as a message now.

          • The Snark Urge@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            11 months ago

            Don’t be tiresome, you know there’s no “we” in the Democratic party. They think they’re playing “good cop, bad cop” with the right, and they’re not going to realize it’s not an act until it’s too late.

      • Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        3
        arrow-down
        2
        ·
        edit-2
        11 months ago

        And that’s one of the main reasons why Biden is the candidate AND why most people who weren’t alive the last time the US had a president to the left of Reagan don’t trust the DNC much.

    • Rolder@reddthat.com
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      4
      arrow-down
      1
      ·
      11 months ago

      I reckon the techniques they use favor older people. For example, I can see a boomer answering a cold call no problem, but I couldn’t say the same for a younger generation.

    • Monkey With A Shell@lemmy.socdojo.com
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      11 months ago

      A part of the problem with the ‘get through 24’ thought line is that Trump and the circus surrounding him has morphed into something that’s functionally it’s own entity with a R painted on it for convenience. That whole branch of the political tree has become some sort of monstrosity that the few remaining normal-ish conservatives fear to cross lest they become a target just like everyone else who’s an ‘other’.

      • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        English
        arrow-up
        2
        ·
        11 months ago

        The rest of the problem with the “get through 24” message is that it will become “get through 28” the day after election day.

    • Hypx@kbin.social
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      1
      ·
      edit-2
      11 months ago

      One problem is cost. It takes millions of dollars to do a truly scientific poll these days. Robocalls don’t work anymore due to cell phone penetration. The phonebook is dead, and along with it any credible listings of numbers that represent real people. Plus very low response rates and spam filters blocking much of polling calls even then. You pretty much have to go door-to-door in order to get a truly good poll, which is something few organizations can do.

      As a result, most cheaply done polls use non-random samples and add a giant “fudge factor” to make it look random. It’s not clear how there models really work and there’s no way to audit them.

    • curiousaur@reddthat.com
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      4
      arrow-down
      16
      ·
      11 months ago

      If it’s so dire, then fuck Biden for supporting a genocide. He’s throwing away an election before it happens. He’s unelectable now.

      I think this is the scenario Newsom has been preparing for.

      • Thecornershop@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        12
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        11 months ago

        Yeah cause Trump and the Republicans are totally against Israel aggression, genocide and are for a free Palestine.

        Newsom has the following election to look forward to, he won’t get a look in at this one. It’s Biden or a Republican.

        A shit choice for many, but only one option has a chance for the American experiment to continue. The other is global fascism, war and mutually assured destruction.

        I know what choice I’d make.

        • curiousaur@reddthat.com
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          2
          arrow-down
          2
          ·
          edit-2
          11 months ago

          You’re correct that Trump is worse, worse for the country and for the current genocide.

          Hillary showed us that a better, yet unelectable opponent falls to Trump. This election is so important, which is why it’s so unacceptable that Biden has thrown it away. He needed the young voters to turn out in record numbers, and now they all hate him. He’ll be handing it over to trump the same way Hillary did by continuing to run after the polls showed she loses to Trump but Bernie wins. She should have stepped down then.

          The only possible recovery at this point is a different candidate. Newsome, Bernie, someone else with a strong anti genocide opinion needs to step up or were handing it to Trump.

          Biden is poisoned now. He will not win another election.

          • Thecornershop@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            9
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            11 months ago

            We can’t afford for anyone left of Reagan to give in to defeat. Fight, like fuck, for whichever dem has the majority party support.

            Any Dem infighting will be exploited by the captured corporate media and bad faith actors to destroy to the literal fabric of democracy in the next election cycle.

            Vote Dem in 2024 then unfuck the system.

            Other option is meh your way into a literal concentration camp at the hands of fascist sycophants.

            Shit choice, but not a difficult one, to me at least.

            • curiousaur@reddthat.com
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              3
              arrow-down
              3
              ·
              11 months ago

              You are correct on all of your points here.

              The question is what do we do now that Biden is absolutely unelectable now?

              Hillary showed us what happens when we stay on the poisoned horse. It does not cross the finish line no matter the effort.

      • PugJesus@kbin.social
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        12
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        11 months ago

        If it’s so dire, then fuck Biden for supporting a genocide. He’s throwing away an election before it happens. He’s unelectable now.

        “He’s unelectable now”

        Yes, I’m sure that not supporting Israel would have been much better for his election chances.

        Like, have you paid attention to popular opinion on Israel at all these past 20 years?

        Do you know what the US electorate looks like, or just what you want it to look like?

        • curiousaur@reddthat.com
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          3
          arrow-down
          6
          ·
          11 months ago

          Have you paid attention to popular opinion of Israel these past 3 months? Since, you know, they started a genocide?

          • PugJesus@kbin.social
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            5
            arrow-down
            1
            ·
            edit-2
            11 months ago

            Have you paid attention to popular opinion of Israel these past 3 months? Since, you know, they started a genocide?

            Alright, first, this isn’t even close to the start. This is just another flare-up of the ongoing genocide that’s been apparent to anyone who pays attention to foreign affairs (ie not most Americans).

            Second, US popular opinion is nowhere near turned against Israel yet. Even amongst Democrats it’s an even split.

            • RaincoatsGeorge@lemmy.zip
              link
              fedilink
              English
              arrow-up
              3
              arrow-down
              3
              ·
              11 months ago

              Yeah there certainly are a lot of people with strong opinions about Israel and Palestine that haven’t so much as taken the time to open the Wikipedia page about the conflict. TikTok said it’s cool to be pro Palestine so that’s good enough for quite a few people.

              I’m certainly not supporting Israel’s actions currently but man how many people so quickly forgot what hamas did only a few weeks ago. It’s like it never happened.

              I think you can be anti genocide and anti carpet bombing while also believing strongly that hamas doesn’t need to exist anymore and it’s members are terrorists that deserve the same treatment that Isis and Al qaeda received.

                • RaincoatsGeorge@lemmy.zip
                  link
                  fedilink
                  English
                  arrow-up
                  1
                  ·
                  11 months ago

                  Don’t interpret me as saying I’m supporting what they are doing currently. I said explicitly I don’t. But after an attack like that I’d fully support military action in the area. You’re a fucking fool if you think any modern nation would ever accept that and just sit by without responding.

                  The problem is in what the response is. Is it a prolonged occupation going building by building? Worked out great for the US. Israel and the US should definitely set about the framework of taking out anyone claiming to be hamas leadership outside of the country. Anyone who had a hand in that attack.

                  Again the response isn’t indescriminate carpet bombing, but there must be a response.

                  Now you tell me what it should be. It’s super easy to sit in your tower and pretend like you have all the answers when we both know you’re likely full of shit.

                  I at least can admit what reality is here. As far as I’m concerned anything else is just people spewing bullshit when they have no idea what they’re talking about.

                  • Ensign_Crab@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    English
                    arrow-up
                    1
                    ·
                    11 months ago

                    Now you tell me what it should be.

                    It should have been a ceasefire long ago. Netanyahu has set a criterion for victory (wiping out Hamas) that he knows cannot be met by his current means (attacking Gaza). He wants to be able to continue attacking Gaza with no end possible.

                    And we’re funding that with no strings attached.

            • curiousaur@reddthat.com
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              2
              arrow-down
              4
              ·
              11 months ago

              You’re correct but this is the first time it’s gone viral on tictoc. I’m not sure you’re understanding how unelectable Biden is now among the young voters that he needed to turn out in record numbers. He will not win another election now that he’s so poisoned.

              • mcribbs@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                6
                ·
                11 months ago

                You know, you’re not going to get very far in any conversation when you just keep saying “he’s unelectable now” over and over.

                • Flying Squid@lemmy.world
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  5
                  arrow-down
                  1
                  ·
                  11 months ago

                  You’d think curiousaur would be too busy spending their lottery millions they get from their prognosticative powers to talk to us here on Lemmy.

                  • Adub@lemmy.world
                    link
                    fedilink
                    English
                    arrow-up
                    3
                    arrow-down
                    1
                    ·
                    11 months ago

                    All that power and they chose to lord it over us poor Lemmy users.

                • curiousaur@reddthat.com
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  2
                  arrow-down
                  2
                  ·
                  11 months ago

                  The young people said they didn’t want Hillary and look what happened. Keep sleep walking.

            • curiousaur@reddthat.com
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              2
              arrow-down
              2
              ·
              11 months ago

              I’m not at all. It’s only the young people and Muslim voters who have turned on him, but that’s enough.

              • deft@ttrpg.network
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                2
                ·
                11 months ago

                One young guy I work with votes the other 12 dudes I work with don’t. Most young ladies I work with vote.

                The one dude votes Dem. Most ladies I know vote Dem. In my echo chamber of life at my job nobody young is voting for Trump and nobody has turned on Biden because they weren’t with him in the first place they’re just not voting for Trump.

                But that’s my echo chamber of my work place. Tiktok is an echo chamber too.

                • curiousaur@reddthat.com
                  link
                  fedilink
                  arrow-up
                  2
                  ·
                  11 months ago

                  Right, he needed to turn out those young voters who don’t vote currently, and now that’s not going to happen.

                  • deft@ttrpg.network
                    link
                    fedilink
                    arrow-up
                    1
                    ·
                    11 months ago

                    By he you mean Biden right??

                    Because he actually doesn’t. He won last time idk if you know that or not? Trump needs the turnout more. Covid crushed his base, a lot of the Republican voters are old people and Christians which is only a falling demographic. Trump needs the youth more than Biden does. Most youth who are politically interested are so because of the Trump admin/roe v wade.

                    The youth that is moved is not towards Trump. You do not understand I think.