But will it last?
  • eestileib@sh.itjust.works
    175·
    5 months ago

    I’ve heard it’s like a 2% change? That’s within the margin of error of most polls.

    It’s noise. Random fluctuation.

    • jeffw@lemmy.worldOP
      8·
      5 months ago

      These shifts were not outside the margins of error in the Reuters/Ipsos and Echelon Insights surveys, while the Times’s pollsters said that they could not calculate such a margin for their recontacting survey. Nevertheless, the fact that the same shift was recorded across three different surveys lends credence to its validity.

    • person420@lemmynsfw.com
      2·
      5 months ago

      There’s two interesting things the article points out.

      1. These were recontact polls. So these were people who were already polled, presumably a small percentage changing their minds.
      2. These were multiple pills across different organizations running them. So while they can be within the margin of error, they all saw the same trend.

      Obviously you can’t go by polls, and there’s a ton of time between now and Nov, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

      • eestileib@sh.itjust.works
        1·
        5 months ago

        Only one of them was a recontact poll, which they don’t even report a margin of error for.

        That one at least produced some interpretable anecdata, to wit: very few people changed their mind.

        It’ll take months of pounding away at it to reach most people, if it does at all.