Russian officials have threatened that a possible decision by the West to allow Kyiv to use donated weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory would result in a major escalation of its war against Ukraine that could include the use of nuclear weapons.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, warned on September 14 that Kyiv could be turned into a “gray melted spot” if restrictions against Ukraine’s use of Western weapons were loosened.
I think NATO wouldn’t right away respond with their own nuclear attacks but Russia would suffer complete condemnation and ostracism on international stage and even their closest allies, including China would renounce them.
It wouldn’t have to be a nuclear retaliation. Once Putin opens the nuke door though, then NATO is all out of reasons to not mobilize all conventional resources and unleash hell.
Additionally, with the firepower at just the US’ disposal, we could level almost every major pop center in Russia. Waves of Tomahawks, ICBMs and bombers could do it without the US putting boots on the ground. We nearly did this with Baghdad back in 02.
If they open that particular box, the only option would be to strike against each nuclear site in Russia. Because once that started there is no reason the Russian threshold for usage would not just lower over time.
At the same time Ukraine would start striking nuclear power plants in Russia. Russia has a lot to lose here.
Unconstrained conventional warfare by NATO against all Russian forces in Ukraine, plus any staging or launch sites in Russia, plus destruction of any Russian military assets acting with hostile intent outside of the European theater would be the strategy, and it wouldn’t take long to fully crush their conventional military might. It would be an actual 3-day campaign.