Some recent polls put florida at only trump+2 or trump+3 . There’s a rather realistic case where polling error underestimating dems by 2% or more could make it a tight race
Polling errors over estimating republican by that much have happened in the past. In 2012, republicans were overestimated for president by on average by 2.5%
Doesn’t FL also have an abortion ballot initiative and a recreational cannabis ballot initiative this election?
They indeed do
They’ve also killed a bunch of old Republicans because of the anti-vax thing.
They import them faster than they die, even with Covid.
The main thing though is that anyone who says they know how Florida is going to turn out, is lying. No one knows, so the best strategy is to let Trump fail rather than put effort into beating him there. He’s already pissed off the Haitians and women, goad him into pissing off the Cubans and let the chips fall where they may.
The Florida Democratic Party is the most disorganized inept of all the state parties. Trust nothing anyone representing it says.
It’s the FL JV GOP
The Florida Democratic Party is the most disorganized inept of all the state parties.
After Texas.
Texas Democrats are actually doing an ok job. That state presents an unbelievably hostile environment to operate in. Florida Democrats continue to internally elect and promote corruption and incompetence, rewarding failure and encouraging ignorance.
Texas Democrats are actually doing an ok job.
Provided the the job is opposing progressives.
I don’t blame the Texas party, this is the kind of shit they have to deal with: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-redistricting-map-2021-republicans-sued-gerrymandering/
Texans win by any means necessary, but cheating is always preferred, and it’s a lot easier to cheat when you’re the incumbent.
Florida Republicans don’t bother because they learned they could just change it after the voting is done in 2000.
Semi-related question: is anyone else suddenly getting Brooks Brothers ads in podcasts? Or is it just me, because I mentioned the associated riot during the Florida recount a week ago?
It’s probably that, I’ve been getting super tailored ads this week too, it’s eerie.
Remember when the media thought Hillary could win Florida and she still got absolutely trounced there? Dems would be straight up stupid to spend a dime there.
Never ante up to a rigged game. The south is as crooked as it gets.
Gusano Cubans will never vote anything but the most fascist conservative option available, and Trump already has a majority of both white male and female bloks in florida… And that’s without mentioning the corruption in FL’s government.
Orrrrrr… VOTE ANYWAY
I think Floridas a terrible play, the only state they shouldn’t sleep on is AZ as it shows in so many winning electoral combos for the Reps
I don’t disagree but making the republicans spend money in Florida also prevents them from spending elsewhere.
No, there is infinite money in Florida, they own the state and half their finance class claim residence there to dodge state taxes and the screwed up laws.
Don’t ante up in rigged games, stay out of the south, it’s their ground and they want you to fight there where they can cheat.
Well I don’t live there and I haven’t been through the south for over 20 years so I’ll take your word on it. But I don’t like to give anywhere I believe in a full ticket run and maybe a serious run at Florida by the top of the ticket can’t win but could help turn some purple districts a bit more blue. And the Presidency is worth much more than the podium unless she’s got the house too.
Your argument is very sound.
But I think the south is the exception, we’ve lost so many elections banking on the south, 2000 in particular, the one that started this whole nightmare time line from hell.
Personally we need to take back the Midwest, lock it down, then start working on the west.
The GOP has painted itself with a lot of extremely toxic policies, let’s use that, force them to be a regional party, confined to the south because nobody else can tolerate their medieval Christian nationalism.
This isn’t about trying to win the south, this is about confining the GOP in the cage of filth it helped construct.
Let’s redeem the Midwest, they’re good people who are reasonably open minded, and they don’t ask for much except make their economy work a bit, that’s something the democrats are actually good at.
We lost the south when we ended segregation, I think that says enough right there.
Oh, and I did live there, I grew up there, and I’m not white.
As an Ohioan starting a counter to redmap here would be a good idea alongside pushing for solidly blue Michigan. We need more union jobs that aren’t directly tied to automotive. Hell, get us making alternatives to automobiles.
But yeah the Midwest is winnable, and we’re a good staging ground for opposition to gerrymandering.
Center the party around the Midwest, and you will own the country.
Reasonable, hardworking, conservative but open minded, and they generally want to be left alone.
Pivot to them and you lose nobody, and gain more voters elsewhere too.
The GOP keeps losing everyone else the more they pivot to Christian sharia.
You may lose some. But yeah, the biggest thing is to run counterpropaganda to the Midwest. You want walz, you want Obama, and you want to not talk down to us or above us.
I firmly believe that farmers can be sold on wind power, but you gotta sell it to them in their eyes. Tell them what you want to give them in exchange for taxes. So much of anti tax rhetoric I hear comes from people who don’t think they get anything out of their taxes. Hell, “we want trains in your cities to reduce traffic” works. Hammer on an end to government intrusion in private life. Rather than saying it’s about abortion make a call for a legal right to privacy.
And above all else, don’t let rich people from the coasts pretend to be one of us. Desantis cosplaying an Ohioan was not even a little appealing to us.
That’s right, Senator Rick Snot and Governor Ron DeathSentence have Florida’s entire healthcare budget to steal on campaigning. The Senate seat might be in reach but the electoral votes aren’t forseeable right now, so money should be spent accordingly.
Gaetz is a nursing home heir, they’ve got all the angles covered, birth to death.
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Miami-Dade Democrats want more DNC funding diverted to them.
I doubt it’s in play, but even so it’s probably not a worthy bet unless the map looks super wonky blue.
Play the smart game, never send money down south unless you’re sure, that’s how blue always loses.
Remember when Clinton decided she should dump millions in Texas and then decided to blame everyone except her campaign for losing?
Exactly, they’ll flirt with you like crazy.
But only till the checks clear.
Don’t say that out loud or you’ll summon her.
I don’t know, you make a lot of good points and I do like your plan. I just dislike being wrong on the internet.
So if I sign up to your newsletter will you accept that as my admitting your probably more right then I am?
Seriously thanks I appreciate the posting.
This appears to be paywalled.
Toss some money at it and remind women in Florida that even if they get the abortion initiative passed, if the Republicans win, they will ban it nationally.
If anything, Trumps ego to win the state he now calls home will make him spend way too much money there.
