Kamala Harris will campaign in the Lone Star State, not because she expects to win Texas, but because she wants to shine a light on Texas’ abortion ban.
Tx has been moving towards flipping blue.
Clinton lost by ~800,000 votes (5% of registered voters) and Biden lost by ~640,000 votes (~3.5% of registered voters). This year, TX is breaking records for early voting turnout, and, historically speaking, Democrats win with high turnout. In just 4 days, TX has cast almost 1/4 as many votes as the entire 2020 election and that’s during the first week of early voting when the polls are only required to be open 9 hours a day. We still haven’t seen the turnout for this weekend or next week, when polls are open at least 12 hours a day.
Democrats win with high turnout.
Lupe Valdez’s 3.5M votes in 2018 was about the same number of votes Beto received in 2022. The shrinking gulf is largely coming from a sag in Republican turnout year-over-year. And GOP favorables aren’t so bad that the party doesn’t consistently beat Democrats in high turnout races.
Maybe this year will be a game changer, but Dems would have to beat a 5-7 pt pad for Trump and at least a 4 pt pad for Cruz. Not holding my breath.
My bet is hard core trump support from Texas this year.
There will be Trump supporters for sure. But don’t forget Trump received more votes in CA than TX in 2020 and Biden received more votes in TX than NY.
Hopefully Millenials and Gen Z will step up this election to keep the Republicans from bringing back the Lavender Scare.
Well, fewer people in California were blocked from voting 😅
Texas would be blue if it wasnt gerrymandered to hell. I think California is the same, would be red if it wasn’t for gerrymandering.
Note: Gerrymandering doesn’t impact state wide races like senate and presidential. Only district based things like house seats
California is far more blue than texas is red. California votes around D+20 statewide, Texas is more like R+5 ish
Texas is more like R+5 ish
That really depends on what office and presidential vs non-presidential election years.
Small aside- Some states split their electoral votes so it would matter there (Nebraska and Maine)
Note- yes it does.
If you feel your vote for local offices doesn’t count (and indeed a lot of races are uncontested) then you’re less likely to vote at all.
So technically you’re right but in practice I would argue gerrymandering has a huge impact on statewide offices.
Texas also has the most effective voter suppression and disenfranchisement in the country. It can be very difficult to vote in the blue cities.
California voted for Biden almost 2 to 1 in 2020, a margin of over 5 million votes. There is no amount of gerrymandering (or un-gerrymandering) that would make California red.
Texas, on the other hand, went for Trump by 600,000 votes (out of 11 million). Solid blue is definitely not in the realm of possibility, but it could swing blue by a small margin.
I mean… California has had quite a few Republican governors before, mostly moderate. But this current Republican party is not the Republican party. I don’t know what this is. It’s chaos. It’s stupid.
The current Republican party is just a party that has been taken over by the monster they curated for decades. The party of Reagan and the Bushes was mostly run by business interests. But to have a chance of winning, they pandered heavily to the religious zealots and the conspiracy nuts. For decades, the businessmen told the crazies that various nebulous evil forces were out to take everything they loved away from them. They used racial resentment, anti-LGBT bigotry, hatred of immigrants, etc. to pander to the crazies. The businessmen promised the crazies that they would punish the evildoers and keep the crazies safe. Well, eventually, the crazies came to realize that the businessmen never really seemed to live up to their promises. They never engaged in the mass brutal expulsion of those filthy immigrants. They never criminalized the queers and locked them in jail. They never actually banned abortion. The businessmen cultured, encouraged, and fed the insanity of the crazies, but they only ever wanted to just string them along. Doing all of the things the crazies wanted was bad for business after all.
Well, eventually the crazies got tired of waiting, and they took over the party. That is what Trumpism is. It’s the monster the Republican leaders have been feeding for decades finally breaking loose and taking over the whole party. For decades, Republican leaders have been running on the same kind of hatred that fascist parties use, but without any intention of actually going full fascist themselves. But if you stoke up enough fascist hatred, if you make that kind of bile acceptable in the body politic…Eventually an actual fascist will come along to give the crazies what they want.
Like it or not, the Republican party of today IS the party of the past few decades. It is simply the party actually embracing its core message and carrying it to its logical conclusions.
The current republican party is just the nazi party with a GOP flag.
Gerrymandering wouldn’t change the outcome of a federal/presidential election. It’s a popular vote at the state level.
Their congressional races would be different.
That’s true, but the claim that California would be red without gerrymandering doesn’t hold up. They have 52 reps, 40-12 currently. If they were evenly apportioned based on the popular vote in 2020 it would be around 35-17. Definitely a difference, but not a massive one.
California is probably one of the least gerrymandered states. In 2008 there was an initiative to form a non-partisan redistricting commission to draw districts. All federal and state districts have been set using this process for more than 10 years.
California also has an open primary system where all candidates run against each other in a combined primary vote regardless of party affiliation (except president and some local offices). The top 2 from the primary advance to the general election. So, the general election could feature 2 democrats or 2 republicans.
Additionally, following the pandemic, California moved to automatically mailing a ballot to every active registered voter. They also have automatic voter registration at the DMV.
Altogether, it would be unfair to compare California to Texas or any other red state, all of whom actively gerrymander and work to suppress voter participation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Citizens_Redistricting_Commission https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/primary-elections-california https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-27/california-universal-voting-by-mail-becomes-permanent
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Because she’s not a coward, like the republican nominee.
More because Houston is one of the most lucrative fundraising locations in the country for Democrats. Same reason Trump will periodically schlep down to California or out to New York for rallies.
oh her campaign is so smart and making all the right decisions, she’s going to win for sure
Definitely a great sign that she just took the Clinton playbook of going to Texas instead of swing states, then blaming the greens if she loses.
Because Ted might lose. That’s a pretty great reason.
You mean Canadian born Raphael Cruz? It’s disrespectful to call a republican anything but their name assigned at birth.
Doubly true for Rafael, given the bill he introduced
I wonder if he understood the irony as he did it
(Most of) These people aren’t dumb, they’re just giant fucking assholes
I strenuously object to you claiming that he’s a Canadian.
It’s true, I just strenuously object. You keep him.
If it helps, I’m pretty sure Raphael is just as unhappy about that fact as you are.
I don’t know… he still has lots of support in Alberta.
Lyin’ Ted is one of the only ones the orange asshole got right. Broken clock and all.
He’s Canadian?..how did he run for president?
Edit: his moms a citizen, he didn’t come to the states till he was 4, but he was hoping that was loophole enough I guess
The actual requirement is “natural born citizen”, which doesn’t really have a formal definition. The most reasonable interpretation is “citizen from birth”. While that includes everyone born on US soil, people born elsewhere can still meet that requirement. John McCain was born on a US base in Panama.
Technically, I think the base counts as US territory as far as citizenship-from-birth goes, but I could be wrong.
The big one for people born abroad is if one of their parents is a citizen at the time of their birth. If you’re an American citizen, go to France for college, and have a kid with a French citizen while you’re there, the kid will have both American and French citizenship.
AND BARACK OBAMA WAS BORN IN KENYA
I was born in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. My parents were coming back from a morale cruise to Bermuda, and I got born on the USS Enterprise. I am considered a natural born citizen.
Edit: still gonna be Wesley here. It was the CVN-80 not the NCC 1701(*)! You know the one that Chekhov got captured on while he and the rest of the away team were trying to save some whales, while Kirk was trying to get laid.
I got born on the USS Enterprise
Relevant username!
Honestly the only real fascinating thing, as far as I am concerned, is the fact that my place of birth was decommissioned, and therefore no longer exists despite there being coordinates on my birth certificate.
Shut up, Wesley
Normally, I would see that as an insult, but in response to that particular comment, I say, “Well played, sir, madame, or xir.”
I would also normally claim that the particular ship I was born on was the CVN-80, and not the NCC 1701, nor any bloody A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, or J, but that is just leaning into the Wesley meme, and I have now transformed into a depressed toucan named John Oliver.
Updooted for posterity.
Wouldn’t that be the most amazing form of this election? Kamala wins, and the reason the Dems are able to get a trifecta - is because Ted fuckin’ Cruz loses his seat.
Nobody likes Ted Cruz and frankly I feel like the Republicans would blame Cruz for being a fuck up before anything else. Like obviously theyll claim it was stolen but before that narrative gets going the ractuon will be blaming Ted Cruz.
So when is someone going to point out that Ted Cruz is an immigrant?
When the going gets tough, Ted Cruz goes to Cancun
And T is going to New York because he’s obsessed with doing a show at Madison Square Garden.
Really shines a light on what each candidate cares about.
Will be funny when no one shows up.
Wouldn’t be the first time.
For the curious, this
“Pro American Rally”Nazi rally occurred in 1939At Madison Square Garden, the rally opened with the Pledge of Allegiance to the American flag. The mood was jubilant. Attendees wore Nazi armbands, waved American flags and held aloft posters with slogans like “Stop Jewish Domination of Christian America.” There were storm troopers in the aisles, their uniforms almost identical to those of Nazi Germany. “It looked like any political rally — only with a Nazi twist,” said Arnie Bernstein, author of Swastika Nation.
The speeches were explicitly anti-Semitic, and tirades against “job-taking Jewish refugees” were met with thunderous applause. “They demanded a white gentile America. They denounced Roosevelt as ‘Rosenfeld,’ to say that Roosevelt was in the pocket of rich Jews,” said Sarah Churchwell, author of Behold, America. In equal measure to the xenophobia, the speeches were loaded with American boosterism.
Sound familiar?
The real reason conservatives love Israel so much, is that they want somewhere to ship all the Jews in America off to.
Bible literalists also believe that a huge war in Israel is a prerequisite to the second coming of Christ AKA the end times.
Oh, so that’s why Israel decided to attack Palestine, Lebanon and Syria all at once.
And Iran.
Pretty sure Israel was attacked by Iranian proxies in those countries. But I’m sure there was a lot of revisionist history going on at that rally in Madison Square Gardens in 1939 too.
