Canada and Mexico haven’t really given Trump anything. These “concessions” are pretty much all things already negotiated during the Biden administration Trump just needed a win so they “gave” him one because he couldn’t actually go through with the tarrifs without crashing the stock market which would’ve pissed off a lot of his friends
That is really completely irrelevant. It’s a win to his voters (and likely to him), and worse it legitimises the negotiation tactic. If Trump threatens Greenland with a potential military invasion, the only correct negotiation tactic is to expel US soldiers from Greenland/Denmark. Why the heck would Greenland host US military when this might be an invasion force?
And this is my point. Symbolic or not, giving Trump “wins” like this only emboldens him to demand more.
Remember, he threatened tariffs the first time, and they “gave” him this. Symbolic or otherwise, doesn’t matter. He reneged anyway and now got them to commit to some (admittedly, vague and probably meaningless) “joint strike force” within 30 days. What happens 30 days from now when Trump once again decides that’s not good enough? More meaningless fluff? And do you plan on doing this every month for the next four years to continue to appease him? Especially when they admit that they’re using it as leverage to start playing hardball. What happens when their next demand isn’t a symbolic gesture? What happens when Trump decides that Canada should just give up British Columbia so the US can have a direct connection between the continental states and Alaska?
Canada shouldn’t give half a flying shit about the US economy. They needed to stick to their guns and demand that the US honor already existing trade deals, and Canada will make no further concessions, symbolic or otherwise. All they are doing with appeasement is just telling Trump that he can keep coming back again and again and Canada will blink every time. And eventually, symbolic gestures aren’t going to be good enough.
Again, look at Denmark. They tried the appeasement route too and now we’re basically in a situation where Trump is threatening to do to Greenland what Russia just did to Ukraine. Because now Trump believes that Greenland is his by manifest destiny or something. This is where appeasement gets you.
There is no possible world where Canada fights a trade war with the US and has a complete and total victory where Trump admits utter defeat. That’s just fantasy. In international political disputes people are always given the chance to save face – that’s just how shit works. The “what about a month from now” argument would also always be true. Even if he announced a permanent end to tariffs he could still announce tariffs tomorrow.
Trump stared down Canada and Mexico and lost. He caved. It was obvious that he was caving when the White House started softening their messaging midday and saying that everything was just a big misunderstanding. The only concession he got was the ability to save face. Mexico re-announced an already in-place commitment. Canada announced some symbolic nonsense. That $1.3B in your original comment was announced more than a month before Trump took office.
He already has Fox News. We don’t need to help polish his losses into victories too.
There is no possible world where Canada fights a trade war with the US and has a complete and total victory where Trump admits utter defeat. That’s just fantasy. In international political disputes people are always given the chance to save face – that’s just how shit works.
You are essentially saying that Canada knows that it can’t win a trade war if push comes to shove. What that means is that whenever this situation happens, Canada is going to have to give up something, even if it’s a symbolic gesture, every time Trump pulls this stunt.
Trump already knows this. Again, take a look at the links. They are openly saying that they know the US has the upper hand and intends to use that to extract further concessions from Canada. The only question then becomes how much is Canada willing to appease Trump before they say “Enough.”? And what happens when (not if. When) Trump no longer settles for symbolic, face-saving gestures?
The “what about a month from now” argument would also always be true. Even if he announced a permanent end to tariffs he could still announce tariffs tomorrow.
Well this is always the case everywhere. But 99.9999999% of the time, you don’t have to worry about the US reneging on its end of the deal on a whim. Every country knows that the other country could announce tariffs any time. But they typically have reasonable assurances that they won’t. Trump offers no such assurances beyond “I have altered the deal. Pray I do not alter it further.”
Trump stared down Canada and Mexico and lost. He caved. It was obvious that he was caving when the White House started softening their messaging midday and saying that everything was just a big misunderstanding. The only concession he got was the ability to save face. Mexico re-announced an already in-place commitment. Canada announced some symbolic nonsense. That $1.3B in your original comment was announced more than a month before Trump took office.
But it was announced and formed based on Trump talking points after the 2024 election. Being negotiated under Biden at the tail end of his administration is basically semantics since the whole thing had Trump’s fingerprints all over it anyway. Remember, Trump was promising to enact these tariffs in November. The deal was finalized in December, largely to appease the incoming Trump administration in the first place and in hopes that this whole mess of bullshit could be avoided. Of course Trump decided it wasn’t good enough, and here we are.
Define “win a trade war.” If Trump’s definition is ‘Canada becomes non-viable as a country and agrees to become a cherished 51st state,’ then the US can’t win a trade war either. The US has a much larger economy and can inflict more damage on Canada, but the US still can’t “win” in the extreme way you’re talking about. ‘No one wins and everyone suffers’ is basically a defining characteristic of trade wars.
Just in the auto industry, half a million Canadians would lose their jobs. It’s easy to say that you shouldn’t “concede” symbolism when you’re not responsible for people’s well-being. Again, there was always going to be a face-saving gesture. Your expectation that there wouldn’t be is unrealistic. Agreeing to some border theatre nonsense (to help solve imaginary problems!) that Canada would’ve done anyway had someone just asked nicely is not a big deal. Canada didn’t need an economic threat to… join a task force that was a Canadian proposal to begin with. The only reason that didn’t already exist is because ~0% of the fentanyl getting into the US is coming from Canada.
Well this is always the case everywhere. But 99.9999999% of the time, you don’t have to worry about the US reneging on its end of the deal on a whim. Every country knows that the other country could announce tariffs any time. But they typically have reasonable assurances that they won’t. Trump offers no such assurances beyond “I have altered the deal. Pray I do not alter it further.”
And?
Canada and Mexico have no control over this.
“We’re entering into a trade war because you might in the future go back on not having a trade war and start a trade war!”
And you’re talking about this like there are no costs to Trump or the US for doing this. There are. He blinked because it was going to cost him. As much as he can say, ‘this is a necessary sacrifice,’ he’s not personally willing to sacrifice a goddamn thing. Those costs will increase over time and skyrocket as we approach midterms.
But it was announced and formed based on Trump talking points after the 2024 election.
Yes, they said “this fucking moron keeps talking about imaginary border shit. Let’s just pass this and hopefully it shuts him up.”
But that would’ve happened even if he didn’t sign the tariff order. You’re attributing it to Trump signing the tariff order and saying that Canada has just conceded it. That’s not true.
Canada and Mexico haven’t really given Trump anything. These “concessions” are pretty much all things already negotiated during the Biden administration Trump just needed a win so they “gave” him one because he couldn’t actually go through with the tarrifs without crashing the stock market which would’ve pissed off a lot of his friends
That is really completely irrelevant. It’s a win to his voters (and likely to him), and worse it legitimises the negotiation tactic. If Trump threatens Greenland with a potential military invasion, the only correct negotiation tactic is to expel US soldiers from Greenland/Denmark. Why the heck would Greenland host US military when this might be an invasion force?
And this is my point. Symbolic or not, giving Trump “wins” like this only emboldens him to demand more.
Remember, he threatened tariffs the first time, and they “gave” him this. Symbolic or otherwise, doesn’t matter. He reneged anyway and now got them to commit to some (admittedly, vague and probably meaningless) “joint strike force” within 30 days. What happens 30 days from now when Trump once again decides that’s not good enough? More meaningless fluff? And do you plan on doing this every month for the next four years to continue to appease him? Especially when they admit that they’re using it as leverage to start playing hardball. What happens when their next demand isn’t a symbolic gesture? What happens when Trump decides that Canada should just give up British Columbia so the US can have a direct connection between the continental states and Alaska?
Canada shouldn’t give half a flying shit about the US economy. They needed to stick to their guns and demand that the US honor already existing trade deals, and Canada will make no further concessions, symbolic or otherwise. All they are doing with appeasement is just telling Trump that he can keep coming back again and again and Canada will blink every time. And eventually, symbolic gestures aren’t going to be good enough.
Again, look at Denmark. They tried the appeasement route too and now we’re basically in a situation where Trump is threatening to do to Greenland what Russia just did to Ukraine. Because now Trump believes that Greenland is his by manifest destiny or something. This is where appeasement gets you.
There is no possible world where Canada fights a trade war with the US and has a complete and total victory where Trump admits utter defeat. That’s just fantasy. In international political disputes people are always given the chance to save face – that’s just how shit works. The “what about a month from now” argument would also always be true. Even if he announced a permanent end to tariffs he could still announce tariffs tomorrow.
Trump stared down Canada and Mexico and lost. He caved. It was obvious that he was caving when the White House started softening their messaging midday and saying that everything was just a big misunderstanding. The only concession he got was the ability to save face. Mexico re-announced an already in-place commitment. Canada announced some symbolic nonsense. That $1.3B in your original comment was announced more than a month before Trump took office.
He already has Fox News. We don’t need to help polish his losses into victories too.
You are essentially saying that Canada knows that it can’t win a trade war if push comes to shove. What that means is that whenever this situation happens, Canada is going to have to give up something, even if it’s a symbolic gesture, every time Trump pulls this stunt.
Trump already knows this. Again, take a look at the links. They are openly saying that they know the US has the upper hand and intends to use that to extract further concessions from Canada. The only question then becomes how much is Canada willing to appease Trump before they say “Enough.”? And what happens when (not if. When) Trump no longer settles for symbolic, face-saving gestures?
Well this is always the case everywhere. But 99.9999999% of the time, you don’t have to worry about the US reneging on its end of the deal on a whim. Every country knows that the other country could announce tariffs any time. But they typically have reasonable assurances that they won’t. Trump offers no such assurances beyond “I have altered the deal. Pray I do not alter it further.”
But it was announced and formed based on Trump talking points after the 2024 election. Being negotiated under Biden at the tail end of his administration is basically semantics since the whole thing had Trump’s fingerprints all over it anyway. Remember, Trump was promising to enact these tariffs in November. The deal was finalized in December, largely to appease the incoming Trump administration in the first place and in hopes that this whole mess of bullshit could be avoided. Of course Trump decided it wasn’t good enough, and here we are.
Define “win a trade war.” If Trump’s definition is ‘Canada becomes non-viable as a country and agrees to become a cherished 51st state,’ then the US can’t win a trade war either. The US has a much larger economy and can inflict more damage on Canada, but the US still can’t “win” in the extreme way you’re talking about. ‘No one wins and everyone suffers’ is basically a defining characteristic of trade wars.
Just in the auto industry, half a million Canadians would lose their jobs. It’s easy to say that you shouldn’t “concede” symbolism when you’re not responsible for people’s well-being. Again, there was always going to be a face-saving gesture. Your expectation that there wouldn’t be is unrealistic. Agreeing to some border theatre nonsense (to help solve imaginary problems!) that Canada would’ve done anyway had someone just asked nicely is not a big deal. Canada didn’t need an economic threat to… join a task force that was a Canadian proposal to begin with. The only reason that didn’t already exist is because ~0% of the fentanyl getting into the US is coming from Canada.
And?
Canada and Mexico have no control over this.
“We’re entering into a trade war because you might in the future go back on not having a trade war and start a trade war!”
And you’re talking about this like there are no costs to Trump or the US for doing this. There are. He blinked because it was going to cost him. As much as he can say, ‘this is a necessary sacrifice,’ he’s not personally willing to sacrifice a goddamn thing. Those costs will increase over time and skyrocket as we approach midterms.
Yes, they said “this fucking moron keeps talking about imaginary border shit. Let’s just pass this and hopefully it shuts him up.”
But that would’ve happened even if he didn’t sign the tariff order. You’re attributing it to Trump signing the tariff order and saying that Canada has just conceded it. That’s not true.