I have no idea how while Trump is a) ripping out the underpinnings of constitutional law which, in turn, is all that holds up all other laws (including transactional) in the US AND b) ripping apart the post war Western defense alliance leaving Europe and Australia completely exposed and vulnerable AND c) going to impose global reciprocal tariffs, which are going to kill trade and plunge the country and the world into the greatest economic depression (coincidentally) since the 1930’s, how the market isn’t down 75% - 90% by this point. Hopes & Dreams? Hallucinogens? Heroin?
What power on earth is allowing Hedge Funds, Banks and Small Investors the justification to keep betting on an underlying business system which is literally being pulled apart at the seams with no real hope of being functional shortly. How is this happening. It’s like I’m taking crazy pills every day. The market should look at what Trump’s already done (much less what he still promises to do) and say, whoop that’s us, we’re audi, this is insane, we can’t trade our value as a corporation any longer, we don’t know where supplies, labor, administration, distribution, sales, or any law governing any of it stands, we have to pull all our monies out, and put them someplace safe like our pockets.
What is happening to keep the market propped up, when literally everything, everywhere that it needs for stability in projected earnings is being hollowed out beneath it?
edit 2/20 : lol edit 2/21: lol
keeping its* value
Because the stock market doesn’t reflect real life
I pulled my money out when he took office. There WILL be a crash and recession, and it will be intentional. There will be all kinds of irrational exuberence to get everyone all in, and then crash it to mop up the spoils and expand the wealth gap.
Did you have a 401k or an IRA? Where did you put it to not get taxed on it?
I have an ABLE account, for people on SSI. It is untaxed, though there is a small fee for just the money to be managed. It is handy, since there is a $2,000 limit on the wealth beneficiaries can have - the ABLE account allows for up to $100,000 to be in there before most benefits are lost. It also invests the money into a stock/bonds/FDIC portfolio of your choosing. If you have enough wealth, you can just deposit money in there until you reach $500,000ish cap for what you can add.
It is really helpful for the poor, since we don’t have many methods for storing wealth that doesn’t involve a mattress. Also, ABLE accounts should be state owned - theoretically insulating them from Musk’s grubby paws. Unfortunately, my state’s ABLE program doesn’t permit Euros, so I suspect no ABLE to be safe from hyperinflation.
Why would you give a fuck about taxes? I just dont want it all lost or stolen
Fascist coups succeed when the rich have bought into the coup.
Why would the rich seizing full control of the state make the stock market go down?
because the middle class gets gutted.
A little while ago the entire market went red. If it’s doing well now then that’s only comparative to everything going on then.
That said, gutting regulations certainly will boost profits short term, if you care more about that than human life and happiness.
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S&P500 closed at an all-time high yesterday. It’s not just up relative to a downturn.
US 30, DOW Jones, and NASDAQ all peaked a little higher in November-December last year. Crude Oil futures haven’t recovered from their 2022 high. USD to Euro is down since 2018 high and USD to GBP is down since 2016.
But yes if you look at charts going back over a decade there is a clear unbreaking “line goes up” trend. In fact, you could argue the charts have an almost asymptotic trend you see right before bubbles pop, possibly due to misevaluating AI.
What the fuck are you even talking about?
Trump is a businessman, and apparently a good one if you look at his past results, like it or not.
Hence, business making is what he does and encourages in the American populous, again, like it or not.
Of course a Trump presidency will stimulate the stock market. It is what it is.
He bankrupt a casino. Doesn’t sound like good businessman.
It’s almost like financial value is artificially assigned or something, and not, like, intrinsic.
To expand: the economy runs on many fuels. Progress, yes. But also blood.
The progress is also made of blood
Blood from crushed orphans is up 300% this year! 📈
Have we checked inside the billionaires to see what they are made of ?
I hear they’re full of candy, like a fat bloated piñata.
Then we should string them up in a tree and beat them with sticks,
… To get the candy.
yes financial value isn’t intrinsic, it’s created, but it’s created by group acclimation, a thing is worth what a) someone of a group of someones says it’s worth AND by b) a second group who is willing to pay what the first group has valued that thing at, for that thing. but it’s an understanding, which is based in observable, recordable, and prooveable metrics BASED equally on the intangible of trust in the underlying business system upon which it is offered. That second bit can’t exist in the current environment, when the Constitution and all law based on it, are becoming meaningless.
You kind of get it with your own answer but are refusing to see it.
Why hasn’t the market dropped yet with all the fuckery going on in DC? Because the impact of said fuckery has not occurred yet. Let this be a chance for some awareness of your own personal information bubble and possible over doom scrolling.
This is not saying this administration isn’t going to cause some terrible shit. It just hasn’t stuck yet. Nothing the administration has done has prevented Microsoft or Google or Netflix from collecting their subscription fees. The closest thing so far has been tariffs that came and went.
The closest thing so far has been tariffs that came and went.
For the record, they were only delayed for 30 days, not cancelled.
Also, Trump just announced some more today, so that’s fun.
You’re right that the actual brunt of the effects haven’t hit yet, though.
Why hasn’t the market dropped yet with all the fuckery going on in DC? Because the impact of said fuckery has not occurred yet.
This is s completely incorrect take on the stock market.
Rule #1 of the stock market is that none understands how it responds to inputs.
Rule #2 is that it attempts to factor in future expectations, so if you wait for something to happen, the impact is already accounted for in the price if the stock.
Market frenzy, people piling on when FOMO takes over, etc all make it impossible to have any level of certainty. So it’s a valid question to ask why all of the current fuckery has not translated into market chaos.
So it’s a valid question to ask why all of the current fuckery has not translated into market chaos.
My reply addresses this with your 2nd point. What I’m trying to say is that maybe the market did factor in the fuckery and has so far believed it to be a nothing burger.
Everyone could be wrong, of course, but so far that is what the markets indicates. So naturally the follow up questions should be, are the markets wrong? Or am I (OP) consuming too much media from my bubble which is overexaggerating the doom and gloom?
The people with the money are the ones running shit. Everything works until they say it doesn’t. Or until we all do.
Much stock value is artificial, but these companies still have infrastructure, brands and products.
these companies still have infrastructure, brands and products.
And you assume this has intrinsic value? Brands and products?
If you woke up tomorrow and had full rights to the name Coca Cola™, would that not be of extreme value to you? Of course it doesn’t have the intrinsic value of a gold brick, but it’s still valuable and stock fluctuations won’t change that fact.
And you assume this has intrinsic value?
I assume they’re making a point about hard assets versus pure speculation, like comparing real estate to crypto coins.
And these things are truly worth a fraction of their assigned value - and no value at all to those who aren’t interested in them. The plumbing inside Microsoft is worthless to me except to maybe make a bong, but it’s worth billions to the company that requires it.
It’s called 401ks, literally anyone with a 9-5 job has one. The entire retirement system was designed to keep people invested in the stock market and betting on it.
Ya beat me to it. Working class people got tricked into turning over their income to be a floor for the US stock market. I always decline 401k benefits at corpo jobs and I love the looks of bewilderment and attempted lectures I’ve received. It’s pretty obvious that HR or someone gets kickbacks for enrolling new employees.
Not all of us. I prefer hard metals.
Why should anything be crashing at this point? Everyone is still working, right? Value is still being extracted from workers, right? People are still buying things, aren’t they?
The stock market will only start crashing once the effects actually reach people’s spending/working behavior, which it didn’t yet.
that’s right people lost their homes, farms, businesses, and jumped off skycrappers in 29, before the market crashed, i must have forgotten
Dingus, they are saying it hasnt reached the tipping point yet. There will be a crash but the system has a lot of inertia that needs to grind to a slow screaching halt first before we start seeing the really big effects.
This is the correct answer.
Stock market is basically meme gambling these days no different from crypto. Its not a reliable indicator of anything.
Trump: “I’ll run the USA like a company!”
How business people run companies: Fire all the competent people and replace with cheaper new hires. Report huge short term profits due to reduced payroll. Stock goes up. CEO ditches company and sells off stock before all the new hires completely wreak the company and tank the stock price.
Why wouldn’t the stock market be up at this point?
Crime. It was crime before, but it’s crime now too.
The people who were supposed to be in charge of preventing the crime didn’t do it before because they were part and party to it, they certainly won’t enforce the laws now.
The stock market is a speculative vehicle whereby predominantly rich people get richer. Generally pointing at everything should indicate a lot of rich people getting richer, so what’s the issue? It’s only if you take the valuation of the stock market as some kind of core health measurement of the economy that it stops making sense. Because it’s not that.
Because the speculative “economy” necessarily grows faster than the actual economy.
As others have said, the stock market has little to do with reality. It’s focused on money and business reports. As long as companies are showing profits, the stock market literally doesn’t care.
Something only hits it when businesses hit it. Look at today’s market. Walmart posted bad futures and the whole market recoiled (only a bit but still).
There’s also just the denial phase. Lots of people, at lots of levels, are dependent on the stock market for their own finances. Literally everyone with a 401k has an interest in the market doing well. Saying “welp, we’re fucked” is just not something that anyone wants to put towards wall street. It’s why we have market “crashes”, because people hold out until the water covers the bow of the sinking shop then they freak out and bail out at the last second.
There’s also just the denial phase.
As evidenced in The Big Short when it was very clear to banks and regulators that the whole mortgage shell game was falling apart and they all refused to act on it.
See, now I have had a few things pegged as being in the denial phase for a while. I’m in Australia, so the housing market I have had pegged to collapse, also I figured we would be heading into a recession coming on 3 years ago and changed businesses to “weather the upcoming recession”
Now while things have cooled off since then, and I still think both elements are overcooked, I obviously moved way to soon.
So my question is, how do you time the denial phase? The housing market issue has been going on for about 30 years from what I can tell (though it got more reasonable for half a minute a bit over a decade ago and then went stupid again).
In my lifetime, and I’m 40 now, I haven’t seen a proper major correction where bad decisions and greed was punished. I should have been “taking stupid risks” the entire time and I would have been just fine.
I don’t have an answer to any of your questions and I don’t think many others will either. It seems like one of those things that you look back at with the clarity of hindsight in order to map things out.
