Summary
NASA has lowered the estimated risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in December 2032 to 1.5%, down from 3.1% a day earlier. The European Space Agency’s (ESA) estimate stands at 1.38%.
The asteroid, 40-90 meters wide, could cause significant city-level destruction but not a global catastrophe.
The projected impact corridor spans the Pacific, South America, Africa, and South Asia.
NASA also estimates a 0.8% chance of the asteroid hitting the Moon.
The way the world is going, it might not be a bad thing if it hits us.
Everyone hoping there’s still a chance, you need to remember… this is only a city-killer asteroid.
We need to hope for a much bigger asteroid.
If the alien movies serve us correctly, this is luckily going to hit the USA; possibly Washington DC directly.
As long as it falls on the right city, it would do the entire world a massive, once in 500 years favor.
Unfortunately North America doesn’t fall under the possible impact zone
We have a few years to improve our asteroid deflection capabilities to change that
More proof that there’s no god.
If it does, I think a bunch of new religions are going to pop up.
There would be enough warning to get people out of the city.
Washington D.C. I hope.
If it hit the middle of the ocean, it could be cool and nothing else.
Would have been funny if it hit Buenos aires
Giant Meteor for Earth President 2032!
Why wait? The best time would have been the dawn of civilization. The second best time is now.
Please
🙏🙏🙏
Bets on it being totally ignored by the world if it turns out to be aimed at Africa?
Africa actually does seem to be the most likely impact if it were to hit. The predicted impact would be along the equator.
Keep looking, there’s got to be something out there that can hit us!
There’s always a chance that we can hit by a gamma-ray burst.
I’m not sure if you saw the recent news but we have a possible new mummy curse, never give up hope
Yeah, but mummies can be friendly… asteroids are a sure thing. Just ask the dinosaurs.
“Hey, little guy, is an asteroid gonna kill us all?”
Cluck cluck!
I haven’t seen that. That’s a new one. Lets go!
Is this the new seven minutes to midnight? We’re 1.5% to asteroid.
Boourns!
What do we need to get this to %100?
It’s probably made up of dense materials like iron. Let’s pile all the earth’s magnets at the White House!
I’ll give mine, as long as someone helps with the shipping!
Well, that’s disappointing…
The global astronomical community expects the odds of an asteroid to hit Earth in December 2032 to eventually fall to zero.
I love how they make it seem like some insider expertise versus knowing basics of how percentages work.
I mean, without knowing what the number represents, it’s not obvious why it goes up and then suddenly drops like this.
They basically predict a cross-section of places it could go through, which shrinks with improved data. If the Earth is still inside, that makes it’s share go up. Eventually, it hits an edge and the share drops to zero suddenly
Just give us the confidence interval and stop updating. We will know better in January 2029 once it has passed by and been tugged by our gravity and the moons.
So you’re tell me there’s a chance?
Relevant username
I’m a Powerball man…
Those are great odds!
Sure hope so!
As someone who’s played MMOs, 1.5% chance is actually pretty high.
As someone who’s played XCom, a 1.5% chance of a bad thing (questionable) means it’s gonna critically hit
As someone who played Ragnarok Online extensively, 1.5% for a single monster kill means I will never find that item.
Not to mention cards’ .01% drop rate ugh
I would sleep like a baby if it had these odds, lol.
