The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reported that the June 1 “Spider Web” drone operation caused approximately $7 billion in damages and disabled 34% of cruise missile bombers in key Russian airbases.
The agency confirmed that more details about the attack will be revealed later.
“And you thought Ukraine was easy? Ukraine is exceptional. Ukraine is unique. All the steamrollers of history have rolled over it. It has withstood every kind of trial. It is tempered by the highest degree. In today’s world, its value is beyond measure,” the SBU wrote, quoting Ukrainian poet Lina Kostenko.
They also vowed to continue to drive Russian forces out of Ukrainian territory.
They could just leave and this would all stop. Putins bitch ass knows how to stop this.
At this point, Putin can’t stop. Weird that everyone acts like he has a choice.
Putin committed to this play, and then went all-in when it didn’t play. Three years later, Russia is relying on a rickety, unstable, wartime economy, suffering more and more sanctions. If he pulls out, the whole house of cards comes tumbling down, utter ruin. Which would be fine by me. Fuck Russia.
He could declare victory and go home. Brag that he forced Ukraine into talks and that he stopped Ukraine from joining NATO and got some small land gains.
And crash his wartime economy? Well, yes, he does have the choice of blowing his own brains out, but most of us don’t consider that a choice.
Doesn’t mean he can’t do it. It’s not like he’s concerned about what happens after his death
I see the two as linked (stopping the war and him falling out of that dangerous window of his) so he has every incentive to keep the war going
He could just hide in a bunker! Nothing bad have ever happened to a country leader that lost a war in a bunker! /s
Think of the memes!
Putin falling out of a bunker window would be a great meme of the year.
Why is there a window in a bunker? Why not?
Like all the hidden Saddam diagram memes but even better. Lol!
To be honest plenty of bad things happened to a country leader that lost a war outside of a bunker.
Just look at Mussolini’s death
I very much hope Ukraine’s reported success is as good as they claim. Deleting 1/3 of the Russia’s bomber capacity against Ukraine is nice.
By every account I’ve read from both sides, seems pretty fucking successful.
Awesome.
“Dozens of long range bombers destroyed”
The more Ukraine do that, the less everyone else have to do it. Good.
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This moment in history is akin to the introduction of airplanes and aircraft carriers. It’s a whole paradigm shift. The future of war is drones. God help us if WW3 breaks out.
A few years before WWI, Russia had a disastrous war against the Japanese, whom they had considered an inferior, small opponent that would be defeated quickly.
Time is a flat circle.
How much will having only 2/3 of their bomber fleet constrain Russia’s ability to wage war?
Practically not that much, but the point is to inflict huge monetary costs and erode public support among Russians to continue the conflict. So from that perspective this is a pretty good bargaining chip going into further negotiations.
And to make Russian forces worry that any cargo container within a couple miles of a sensitive area could pull over and have a bunch of drones pop out of it.
I think Ukraine can only pull off a big attack like this a few times. Not because they’re incapable, or Russia, now aware of the method, can defend against it, but because each attack generates data. The more data you have, the greater the ability to analyze and spot patterns, which puts Ukrainian operators at risk.
Although it would be excellent if another attack happened very soon against another relatively irreplaceable Russian asset. But a campaign of smaller scale harassment throughout the country would suffice to harm morale and keep supply constraints, well, constrained.
Presumably the other 2/3’rds are operational. Presumably.
We’ll have to see how much of their previous pace they can keep up. In any case, every military that can, keeps some things in reserve. What’s the likelihood that the ones in storage are still there and not gutted for parts that got sold for vodka?
The US keeps their reserve in Arizona but it isnt a quick, easy, or cheap process to reactivate a plane depending on how it is stored. We have pulled two B-52s out of storage in the last decade as replacements after a ground fire and a crash. One took 19 months and the other took 12+ months.
Depending on fuel availability and other obligations, it opens them up to some severe implications to enterprising forces. Logistically they must either weaken other theaters (like say Syria or Georgia or Kyrgyzstan) by flying them to replace the lost craft, or simply accept a weakened position with air power over Ukraine. (Assuming all are in service and none are reserve)
Even more so, Russian command will have to gauge if Ukraine is able to replicate this, and how often. If another strike like this is deemed not only possible but imminent, they will have to start using an airbase even further from the front, driving fuel costs up to deliver the same payloads. Additionally, increased flight time means less chance the target will be caught unprepared for your arrival and allows more time to relocate mobile AA to respond to your (now much longer and obvious) flight path.
Edit: The TU-95 (the nuclear capable bigboi) has a fuel range of 15k km (9300mi) so these were already well within range, just flight times will be longer.
You get it, brother.
This actually has huge implications for the war in general. Russias nuclear triad just had the dick blown off of it,
I’d be willing to wager that this was most, if not all the active bombers being used in the Ukrainian theatre. If they are following a loose rule of 3rds with their birds (deployed and flying missions, being prepped for deployment, shut down receiving repairs/overhauls), this very well could severely limit Russia’s ability to keep up their cruise missile bombardment.
If that’s the case, that frees up Ukraine to be much more flexible with their air defenses.
Not to mention if they were able to pull off a mission like this, allegedly using cell towers to fly their drones, what’s stopping them from doing similar limited missions to tank factories, recruit depots, and other places that are further away from the front? Literally all of these targets now become viable because they will be much less heavily guarded than the nuclear triad bombers.
Protecting those assets pulls material and meat from the front lines, which further helps Ukraine.
I can’t help but see this as a massive positive swing in momentum for Ukraine.
Not to mention if they were able to pull off a mission like this, allegedly using cell towers to fly their drones, what’s stopping them from doing similar limited missions to tank factories, recruit depots, and other places that are further away from the front? Literally all of these targets now become viable because they will be much less heavily guarded than the nuclear triad bombers.
I assume the cell tower thing was exploiting an oversight or other vulnerability that can only be exploited once before Russia plugs the hole. Maybe they can do it again but it would be relying on enemy incompetence, which is in plentiful supply these days but still not a good idea to rely upon.
But how can Russia jam waves of bodies into an electronic hole?
Could be. It could also be as simple as using an actual Russian phone, and having an app on the phone that flies the drone.
We don’t know, and I don’t want to know so they can keep doing it.
The big change will be if they can’t fire as many missiles at once then they can’t use the saturation technique that lets them get past AA. A bunch of missiles fired over a longer period of time are less effective.
Totally. This is fucking huge for the war.
Ukrainian AA can’t reach these bombers because these were used as launching platforms for long range missiles over Caspian, relocating SAM sites does nothing. Also it’s likely that what was hit were good planes, some of which were even fitted with Kh-101 cruise missiles at the time of attack, and part of what is left are planes under maintenance. It could be so that only third or less of long range bombers are usable now, which would most obviously increase wear on them in immediate future
Moving further away likely won’t deter Ukraine. The Russians will need to start surrounding their airfields with a lot more, and better, defensive capabilities. The question is whether they have the ability to do that or not.
Fuck yeah!
Just as well they didn’t let the US (AKA as Putin’s bitch) know about it beforehand
Oh yeah. The US leadership is filled with Russian assets and Putin playthings.
I don’t think it’s because Trump is a Russian asset which is why they haven’t told the White House, but because Ukrainians have had bad experience with their plans being leaked before. The 2023 Ukrainian offensive failed because the Russian knew they were coming, and everyone including the media and their mothers shouted it across the rooftops for weeks. Back then, I thought “isn’t this a bad idea to report it on the media”? But then I am an armchair analyst so I guess the Ukrainians and Bidem knew what they were doing (turns out they didn’t). Since then, Ukrainians choose to hide their intentions.
Edit: incorrect year
The 2022 offensive failed because there wasn’t enough support. Ukraine was saying they needed X tanks, shells, guns, whatever from the West, and they actually got around X/3. Even with that, they very nearly made it far enough that Crimea would have been logistically cut off. Russia would have either needed to come to terms or else Crimea literally and metaphorically starves.
There isn’t really a way to hide what you’re doing. You have to build up forces at your bases, move a lot of material, etc. The timing wasn’t going to be a surprise, either, because local seasonal weather changes put a demand on when you do things.
The Ukrainians were far from cutting off Crimea in 2022. They barely made it like 5-10 kilometres? And unfortunately, the area they recaptured is being slowly grounded away by Russian counterattacks in the past two years. The Ukrainians were hoping that Russia at the time haven’t learned their lesson and could replicate Ukrainian rapid offensive in Kharkiv in autumn of 2021.
The surprise Ukrainian offensive into Kursk proved you can hide your intentions. It isn’t like Ukraine haven’t learned their lesson beforehand. Speaking of which, the incursion wasn’t told to the White House either when Biden was president.
It didn’t need to be far.
Artillery range is around 70km. You need to get that close to the southern most road along the coast into Crimea, and a little more for padding some defense. Now you can turn that road and anything on it into rubble whenever you want.
Ukraine got within a few km of doing that at some areas.
The Kerch Strait Bridge could be hit whenever by a missile. Ukraine had already hit it by then.
There’s a port at Sevestapol. It’s also been hit by Ukranian missiles before, and even if not, it’s not enough on its own.
Airplanes expend lots of fuel for not much cargo. You’re not going to supply Crimea that way.
There would be no logistical options left for Russia. Holding those couple of km more would starve it out. Only question is if Putin tries to hang on out of stubbornness.
I love the great news of Ukraine beating Putin’s sorry behind - and how that development is spreading to many other news sources.
Slava Ukraini!
How I wish that the general Russian population would know more about it.
I live in a place full of Russians. Trust me, they know. The official state media tries to cover it up, but it’s getting harder and harder. Most Russians know, they just can’t talk about it publicly without risking prison. But Putin’s days are numbered.
And what you have them know? Putin has prosecuted his propaganda in Russia exactly as he had in the West.
Russians think any and all news is bullshit, no source is to be trusted. And look what we have in America today. Huh.
That’s more than 1/3rd of ALL of their aircraft, holy shit. This just makes it insanely difficult for Russia to save face. ANY truck could be holding hundreds of suicide drones deep into Russian territory. The Russian authorities are gonna be so paranoid they won’t be able to coordinate anything.
Good.
Genuine question, what is the end game objectively do you think? Rdors Russia retreat unable to carry the war and then recoil into a depression economy? I seriously don’t see Ukraine slowing down at all. The longer this goes on it seems like Russia takes one step and Ukraine takes 1.2 steps forward.
Most likely ends when Putin loses the loyalty of the top brass and oligarchal mobsters. This attack goes a long way to having the question being asked, surely there has already been hushed tones, if this is the fight they want to ruin Russia for. They have been successful in terms of land gains, not to any great value - ~20% after 12 years is embarrassing. They have lost a lot of goodwill, marketability, economic growth not to mention brain drain, population etc., and they are now facing budget cuts because of oil prices.
Or Putin dies of natural causes. Which isn’t too farfetched. Then the oligarchs find themselves a Deng Xiaoping-like figure who says “ok, all that was bad, let’s do something else”.
Probably, Russia will have to face the facts that they can’t build their own fighter jets, bombers, tanks, or fighting ships larger than a destroyer anymore. Not on the scale they need. Even if you assume some of the designs they’re putting out are good (a big assumption), they can’t possibly build them at scale. China is sitting right over there with the factories for those things. Xi Jinping will be happy to take their check, but will make sure it clears first.
A few more of those, and Russia has to walk and throw stones.
They already are. So what is the next step after?
It’s a weird sensation to stick to this as someone so far away, but I feel plain proud of all the Ukrainian forces that made this happen so successfully.
Glory to our Ukranian HEROESSSS!!! 👑🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻 Insane, utmost respect!!!
