• sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
    1018·
    16 天前

    Please tell me none of these bombs were nukes…

    Fucking amazing.

    PNAC gets its way in the end, despite at least 40% of Trump’s rise to political prominence being due to him being one of the few Republicans to criticize… you know, all the pointless meddling and wars in the ME.

    … And Trump is almost single handedly responsible for all of this.

    He tore up the nuke deal Obama made. He massively mismanaged every element of the Israeli/Palestine situation. Fucking stepson Kushner’s gonna figure it out, don’t worry.

    Oh yeah lets piss off everyone and move the embassy to Jerusalem.

    Beyond contemptible.

    The man is a demon.

    Kefka?

    Is Trump Kefka, or is that an insult to Kefka?

    Fucking childish demon clown that just wants to blow up the whole world so he can feel special.

    • queermunist she/her@lemmy.ml
      2321·
      16 天前

      It’s the perfect crime. They bombed nuclear sites, which means there are going to be radiation spikes regardless of what kind of bombs they dropped, which means they could drop small nukes and probably get away with it.

      • goferking (he/him)@lemmy.sdf.org
        121·
        16 天前

        Yeah but we have bombs that can do about what a small one would do without using radioactive materials. If they want to nuke them with Trump they’d go for something big and spectacular, like when he dropped the massive moab

        • sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
          7·
          15 天前

          If you are talking about conventional bombs that are comparable to a small nuke in a ground burst or air burst scenario, yes.

          But not for ground penetration, no.

          A conventional explosive displaces, creates a pressure wave that fractures and shatters things, but that pressure wave behaves differently when applied to different materials.

          A nuke creates a ball of plasma that is so hot that it evaporates everything inside the primary blast radius, and then also a pressure wave when that miniature sun displaces things and wants to expand outward in every direction.

          A 20 kt nuke will make an all incinerating fireball approximately 200m in diameter… so that means everything in a 100m radius from the point of impact, is now plasma… and then on top of that you get the massive pressure wave extending damage further beyond that.

          Nukes are considerably more effective as deep pemetrator weapons than conventional explosives are.

          The GBU 57 MOP, going off publically available info, can destroy earth (meaning soil) 60m under its point of impact… but only about 18m under reinforced concrete.

          A mountain, with a reinforced bunker complex under it, is going to be a lot closer to reinforced concrete than it is to soil in some dry lakebed testing range.

          And Fordow is roughly 80m, possibly more, underground.

          So… the tactical nuke can basically guaranteed do that mission in one accurate hit, whereas with GBU 57s, you’d need a number of them, and you would have to basically drill a bore hole by dropping successive bombs into the same hole.

          And uh, last note, the MOAB is just shy of 22,000 lbs, has a blast rating of about 11 tons of TNT. Its not a ground penetrator though, it is thermobaric, a fuel air bomb.

          The GBU 57 MOP is a 30,000 lb bomb, and… rough math works out to about… maybe 1 kiloton, max, probably less?

          I guess we’ll have to wait for Warthunder to add the B2 and GBU 57 and then eventually someone will leak the real specs.

      • ryannathans@aussie.zone
        38·
        16 天前

        Iran claim no radiation leak or contamination because they moved the uranium before the strikes and nothing was stored there

      • ultranaut@lemmy.world
        521·
        16 天前

        That’s not how it works. You can tell the difference between radiation from a nuclear weapon and a conventional bomb used on radioactive materials. If they used nukes they won’t be able to cover it up for very long.

        • queermunist she/her@lemmy.ml
          612·
          16 天前

          There’s different isotopes in the fallout, different radio spectrometry or whatever, but I think they could lie and say that the reason it looks like a conventional nuclear weapon is because Iran was hiding a nuke and they blew it up.

            • queermunist she/her@lemmy.ml
              55·
              15 天前

              What’s so fantastical about the US using a tactical nuke and then lying about it?

              Looks like that didn’t happen here, but I see no reason that it couldn’t.

              • ohulancutash@feddit.ukEnglish
                9·
                15 天前

                Because nuclear detonations are very different to conventional ones, and every major power has satellites monitoring for them. They can’t be hidden. Hell, any university or weather service within 3,000 miles would be able to detect it.

          • Logi@lemmy.world
            7·
            15 天前

            A nuclear detonation is a very delicate and precisely controlled process. It doesn’t just happen because a bomb goes off near the nuke. So sure, they can say anything, but there will be obvious evidence.

            Speaking of saying anything, I’m going to look for reliable confirmation that this even happened. I’m not taking Trump’s fucking tweet for it.

      • sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
        262·
        14 天前

        See this is exactly what I am worried about.

        The Fordow site is simply under too big of a fucking mountain for even our largest conventional penetrator bombs to actually significantly fuck up… unless you basically were able to pull off multiples of those bombs hitting the exact same point from nearly the same angle…

        GPS guided bombs are accurate, but not that accurate… you’d have to throw like 20% to 40% of the entire US stockpile of these fuckoff huge conventional penetrator bombs to literally dig a hole through the mountain.

        … Or, you drop one tactical nuke.

        fucking not good

        …

        like this is what those air radar images were showing from 24/48 hrs ago.

        That was probably the US’s entire fucking B2 Bomber Fleet deploying.

        …

        EDIT:

        Yep 24 to 48 hrs later and…

        Apparently around a dozen 30,000 lb, GBU57s were used, there are at least 3 distinct impact sites visible from Sat Imagery…

        And oh hey well, a whole bunch of people are now claiming that… did these do damage?

        Sure yes.

        Did they ‘utterly obliterate’ the entire site?

        Not according to Israel, and a good number of others.

        So… 1) thank God they did not actually use a tac. nuke.

        1. Yep, they threw roughly 1/3 of our entire GBU 57 inventory at Fordow alone, and also the bombs were not accurate enough to inflict repeated, concise hits.
        • Skua@kbin.earth
          8·
          16 天前

          JDAM is supposed to have a circular error probable of 5m and it’s an upgrade kit from 25 years ago. I can definitely believe that a much newer purpose-built weapon can do better than that. The idea of hitting the same spot with multiple bombs might not actually be that unlikely

        • ℍ𝕂-𝟞𝟝@sopuli.xyzEnglish
          5·
          15 天前

          I can totally see Trump just having a bunch of random bombs dropped in the general area, declaring victory and telling everyone to fuck off though.

          Iran will not dispute the strike was effective, and neither will Israel.

    • Nakoichi [they/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
      5112·
      16 天前

      Trump is not single handedly responsible for jack shit. Get the fick outta here with this great man theory nonsense. Almost every single democrat has been in lock step supporting this shit.

      • lemmyseizethemeans@lemmygrad.ml
        323·
        16 天前

        Hear hear. Great man theory is absurd. If Kamala was at the helm I guarantee it wouldn’t be any different, only libs wouldn’t protest because slay kween we came we saw he died

        It is the superstructure, it is the machine of capitalism that needs to feed. Watch oil futures on Monday and remind me who is the greatest producer of crude and LNG today?

      • sp3ctr4l@lemmy.dbzer0.comEnglish
        94·
        15 天前

        There’s a reason I said almost singlehandedly.

        Would you prefer ‘played a pivotal role’?

        Yes, a lot of Democrats went along with the revocation of the agreement, and then failed to get a new agreement in place during the Biden admin, after Trump and the Reps also failed to get a new deal in Trump’s first term, despite that being one of Trump’s campaign promises.

        But Trump, as the head of state, signed an executive memorandum that cancelled it.

        Which is a thing that a US President can actually do unilaterally, whereas drafting or accepting a new deal, an international treaty, has to go through Congress.

        Its… kind of a massive flaw in the US Consitutional framework, that a President effectively has an incredible veto power when it comes to international agreements.

        https://www.yalelawjournal.org/forum/presidential-power-to-terminate-international-agreements

        Could/Should the Dems have reformed this, threw a massive shit fit about this?

        Absolutely yes.

        But in this particular instance… the whole scenario really actually does hinge on the President being singly able to do something extreme, with no real, effective, balanced check on that power.

        I do not need to invoke or subscribe to Great Man Theory to point all this out.

        Trump is a symptom of many greater, unchecked sicknesses and decay and corruption in American politics and society… he is simply the fraudulent idiot man-child r*pist that the masses of frustrated, hateful, intolerant, anti-intellectual bigots projected their yearning for spite and revenge onto, and empowered.

        • pinkapple@lemmy.ml
          2·
          15 天前

          While the masses that supported the regime change in Libya that Obama and Hillary were pushing with straight up KKK level propaganda (“Gaddafi handing out viagra for mass rapes” + “Gaddafi recruiting mercenaries from sub-Saharan Africa” = real migrant workers from Chad were getting hanged from bridges by the “rebels for democracy”) and is currently a slave market are what? Unfrustrated, tolerant, intellectual, classy liberals?

          The entire US middle class on both sides turns to a cheerleader for the military industrial complex with only slightly different narratives to support it each time. The presidents are puppets of economic forces, snap out of it.

        • AOCapitulator [they/them, she/her]@hexbear.netEnglish
          5·
          15 天前

          Its… kind of a massive flaw in the US Consitutional framework, that a President effectively has an incredible veto power when it comes to international agreements.

          not a flaw, this is a feature of US power

      • ShimmeringKoi [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
        181·
        15 天前

        I love your solution-oriented mindset, but just feel the need to clarify one point. This is what the US has always stood for, it’s always been a wretched hell-empire run by rich ghouls willing to drown the world in blood. Those of us who want to get along and not kill everybody, we’re the traitors, just factually speaking. And that’s a good thing

  • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
    1126·
    16 天前

    May the US Empire crumble to dust, its only vestiges a dark stain on human existence for future historians to look on with disgust.

      • Trainguyrom@reddthat.comEnglish
        2·
        14 天前

        It would be hilarious if Trump’s, Israel’s and Iran’s actions end up triggering significant climate action out of the sheer cost of continuing to burn oil. The last fuel crisis in the 70s actually caused significant amounts of research into alternatives and some interesting electric vehicles were actually released during that time

    • Onyxonblack@lemmy.zip
      101·
      16 天前

      Hate to be that guy but -> “Total global Civilizational Collapse by 2050” is being tossed around. And going by the past absolute fuckery of prediction skills, that means we got at best till 2040… No history or historians, just slow climate death and extinction for all.

      • merc@sh.itjust.works
        72·
        15 天前

        “Total global Civilizational Collapse by 2050” is being tossed around

        By whom?

        Idiots toss around a lot of stuff.

      • Cowbee [he/they]@lemmy.ml
        6·
        15 天前

        Doubt it. Climate change is already happening, but we can mitigate its effects the earlier we tackle it. Plus, no idea who is floating the collapse idea around.

  • CircaV@lemmy.caEnglish
    26·
    15 天前

    tHe PeAcE pReSiDeNt

    (Rather, the clown president)

    Gotta feed $ to Raytheon, Halliburton, Lougheed Martin & the billionaire class.

    🤷🤷‍♀️🤷‍♂️

    LOL impeachable AF but the US 😴😴😴

  • TFO Winder@lemmy.ml
    261·
    15 天前

    This feels a lot like start of a WW3 for the third time in past few years.

    First it was Russia-Ukraine war, then it was Israel Hamas conflict, now its this.

    • Rainbowblite@lemmy.caEnglish
      33·
      15 天前

      WW2 didn’t start overnight. There was a series of military actions that went unchallenged. That only made the belligerents bolder.

      • geneva_convenience@lemmy.mlOP
        22·
        15 天前

        Indeed. WW2 was a massive slow-walk into the full war. Everyone saw it coming from a mile away and nobody did anything to stop it. Similar to now where everyone can see that this is going to open more fronts.

        At one point all the fronts might band together with more and more suddenly joining each side, and boom you have WW3.

        • lemmyseizethemeans@lemmygrad.ml
          3·
          14 天前

          Lots of people tried to stop it but the material conditions of austerity on Germany post WW1 plus the banks smelling blood in the water kind of made it inevitable from a materialist perspective

  • SabinStargem@lemmy.todayEnglish
    51·
    15 天前

    I hope that Iran will make Project 2025’s backers find out. Our bastard leadership think there are no consequences for doing evil and stupid things, and are in severe need of an attitude readjustment.

    • WoodScientist@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
      41·
      15 天前

      Iran would be perfectly within their rights to assassinate various US government officials. After all, that’s exactly what the US and Israel have been doing in Iran.

      • P00ptart@lemmy.world
        15·
        15 天前

        But do they really have that capability? I agree, it’d be totally justifiable and a credible war target, but let’s be realistic here.

        • SabinStargem@lemmy.todayEnglish
          36·
          15 天前

          Considering some rando nearly got Trump, and how the MAGATs have dismantled their intelligence apparatus and completely lack an interest in risk assessment…Iran actually has a decent shot. Literally and figuratively. After all, you don’t have to ID yourself if you claim to be a member of ICE. Just wear a mask, don’t use license plates, and carry weapons, you will look like every other random gravy seal.

      • GiantSpoonWielder@lemmygrad.ml
        8·
        15 天前

        It’s obscene that the resistance forces need to keep appealing to international law in order to maintain credibility while isrl and the empire enact such wild and open terror and war crimes.

        People fighting to liberate themselves from fucking nazis having to justify themselves to nazi sympathizers.

  • minnow@lemmy.world
    915·
    16 天前

    I think we can expect Iran to just keep on fighting back, but who I’m REALLY looking at now is Pakistan. They said that if anyone attacked Iran besides Israel, they would enter the war on the side of Iran. Even if America’s participation in the war stopped here (not fucking likely) if Pakistan follows through with their threat then this escalation really, honest to God, could be the start of WW3.

    Because here’s the thing: India has been trying to goad Pakistan into their own war for a few months now. So here’s my prediction, although be warned it gets a little crazy after the first 5 points:

    • Pakistan attacks Israel as an ally of Iran
    • India attacks Pakistan as an ally of Israel
    • Afghanistan supports Pakistan with supplies and possibly troops, out of fear of India
    • Israel continues to pressure Trump, who supports Israel the way the USA (used to) support Ukraine. But direct action is possible, as seen today.
    • European support for Israel disintegrates, and they focus on Ukraine.
    • Russia declares support for Israel. Now Afghanistan has aggressors to the North (Russia) and India (South) albeit with a buffer country in both directions. They’re highly motivated to support both buffer countries, but also wary of the USA coming after them (again).
    • Europe can no longer simply ignore Israel as it has become a second front in the war for Ukraine.
    • Kazakhstan declares allyship with Afghanistan because they understand that Russia has to go through them to get to Afghanistan and they really really don’t want that.
    • Russian allies (Turkey, Belarús, Hungary) hamper the EU response.
    • Trump takes advantage and makes a play for Greenland and Panama.
    • NATO invokes Article 5 against the USA, uses this to justify attacking Russia (who is now aligned with the USA via Israel) directly IF they didn’t decide to focus on America first (likely).
    • Canada is part of NATO, talks Mexico into joining against the USA because it’s the only way they stand a chance.
    • China grasps at the opportunity to seize Taiwan and cement its claim to South China Sea.
    • Japan, South Korea, and most is Southeast Asia and the South Pacific band together against China to drive them out of the South China Sea and Taiwan.
    • Egypt and neighboring countries take strict control of the Red Sea, denying passage to ships belonging to Israel/Russia/China/et allies.

    Ultimately, the two sides:

    THE AGGRESSORS

    • Israel
    • Russia
    • India
    • America
    • Hungary
    • Turkey
    • Belarús
    • North Korea
    • China

    THE RESPONSE

    • Iran
    • Pakistan
    • Afghanistan
    • The EU (and the UK)
    • Egypt and neighbors
    • Canada
    • Mexico
    • Japan
    • South Korea
    • Most/all of Southeast Asia and the South Pacific
    • South Africa

    Oddly I see Australia sitting this one out, as their politics are far enough right to not want to go to war with their traditional allies (eg, the USA) but not left enough to support the response in any meaningful way. Something would have to force their involvement.

    As for Central and South America, it’s a mixed bag. Obviously some countries like El Salvador will support Trump, but I think most of them will defend Panama if they get involved at all. I certainly can’t see Argentina and Chile being ok with just letting anybody pass Cape Horn.

    Africa I just have no fucking clue. China has been involved in a lot of African countries in very big ways that the African countries aren’t entirely happy about. They could take advantage of the circumstances to seize and nationalize Chinese assets within their borders, which puts them at odds with China/Russia/Israel/et allies and I think they would be pretty ok with that. South Africa in particular I think may take a more active role against the aggressors, given their position controlling the Cape of Good Hope.

    Tldr if this plays out anything even remotely like what I’ve written here, and I really REALLY how it doesn’t, we’re all VERY FUCKED.

    (This is a work of total conjecture, I’m probably wrong, so don’t waste your breath telling me I’m wrong. That said some of my logic may not be obvious, so I’m happy to answer questions to clarify my thoughts)

    • m532@lemmygrad.ml
      9·
      15 天前

      I’ll still tell you: You’re the wrongest I’ve ever seen

      Have you ever taken even a single look at the real world?

    • lostbit@feddit.nlEnglish
      3·
      15 天前

      pakistan will do fuck all. Talking shit is cheap, actually goto war will not happen

    • Ayano @sopuli.xyz
      1·
      15 天前

      do pakistan has weapons to reach israel? and maintain offence for a week?

      where’s pakistan gonna buy weapons from, china?

    • silverhand@reddthat.com
      4·
      15 天前

      It’s not just conjecture, it’s complete delusion. Pakistan never committed to put feet on the ground for Iran. It would be beyond idiotic considering the state the country is already in.

      And even if all logic died and Pakistan somehow sent military support, Israel and the US are more than capable enough to handle it themselves. They don’t need India’s support and India, being the world’s poster child for non-alignment, won’t give it even if asked anyway.

      It might be hard to understand but India has unironically been friendly with both Iran and Israel at the same time.

    • Gil Wanderley@lemmy.eco.br
      19·
      16 天前

      Placing the US, Russia and China as allies during a hypothetical WWIII? That’s a VERY bold claim.

      Also, really doubt the EU could use NATO to declare war on the US, as the US are still the vast majority of NATO’s firepower and command.

      • minnow@lemmy.world
        19·
        16 天前

        Yeah and I just saw (after writing all that!) that Russia and China had warned the USA to not attack Iran, so I could absolutely be way off base there.

        Edit: the logic had more to do with Russia’s ambitions to reform their lost empire. Afaik it’s widely believed that after Ukraine, Russia will go for Kazakhstan and possibly Afghanistan. It’s less that I see Russia siding with the USA and Israel, and more that I think Russia will be opportunistic in its military expansion.

        • BrainInABox@lemmy.mlEnglish
          112·
          15 天前

          it’s widely believed

          Whenever you see this phrase, it’s going to followed by nonsense nobody serious believes.

          the logic

          The logic is that you went “oh, China and Russia are bad guy countries, so they’ll go on the bad guy team, just like in the comic books!”

          • minnow@lemmy.world
            14·
            15 天前

            My logic was exactly what I said it was. I never claimed it was good logic. And I never claimed to be psychic and magically understand what other people’s logic is despite them plainly saying their logic is something else. But if that’s what makes you feel superior enough to get through the day then you do you.

        • freagle@lemmygrad.mlEnglish
          10·
          16 天前

          You’re psychologizing. Russia as a nation does not have a psychological need to reestablish it’s former Tsarist empire. It’s entire aim militarily is to prevent encirclement by the US.

    • Almacca@aussie.zoneEnglish
      8·
      15 天前

      Australia will fall in line behind the US because we always fucking do like a bunch of patsies.

    • JacksonLamb@lemmy.world
      5·
      15 天前

      Pakistan. They said that if anyone attacked Iran besides Israel

      We have no record of Pakistan saying that. Iran claimed Pakistan said that.

      But in terms of what we do know Pakistan is doing, is it nominates Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

  • TFO Winder@lemmy.ml
    118·
    15 天前

    A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site…NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE!

    How the F*** can anyone use these two lines in a single paragraph. Absurdity here is comical

  • D_C@lemm.ee
    131·
    15 天前

    "Ok Google. Send a tweet to xhitter. Say…

    I am going to put certain WORDS in CAPS to accentuate them for REASONS that no one can really understand. Then I’m going to SPOUT bullshit about the traitors flying high miles away from any DANGER but I’ll laughingly call them HEROIC and PATRIOTIC.
    Then I’ll touch my little mushroom peepee and do a nazi salute to MYSELF in the MIRROR.
    Thank you for your attention to my EGO!!!

    Send tweet.

    Right, where the little kiddies at? I’m feeling super viagra masculine today!! Shit, how do I delete this. No, stop. Don’t send. Everyone IGNORE that last bit about the kiddies!! Phew, got away with that! Hegseth. HEGSETH. change me, I’ve shit myself again. Get right in there and clean the folds."

  • Almacca@aussie.zoneEnglish
    9·
    15 天前

    I can’t remember the exact context, but I made a comment to a friend that voted for Trump (now former friend) back in 2016/7 just after the election along the lines of ‘if the country isn’t a smoking crater by the next election’. I thought I was being hyperbolic.