A hundred billion? I don’t actually know, but that seems too high. I’ve worked as an automation engineer in a bunch of factories and know that you can get a fairly complex fairly large factory for 9 figures. I know semiconductors are complicated but so are a lot of things. I’d guess it’s closer to a billion depending on scale/size/location.
5 years to start up a factory is fast, but doable.
This came from looking up how much people are currently spending to build a ram fab. It’s worth remembering that the tools used are very complex and are also impacted by the massive spike in semiconductor prices.
They’re quite literally making some of the most complicated and intricate things on the planet.
The vast majority of the cost is tools, and when the price of those spikes due to shortage the cost goes up insanely fast.
Cost estimates from even a just a few years ago have the cost being $10 to $20 billion.
For that matter, how much does it cost to start a RAM manufacturer?
Ballpark $100,000,000,000 and five years per factory.
Modern semiconductors are very complicated to produce.
A hundred billion? I don’t actually know, but that seems too high. I’ve worked as an automation engineer in a bunch of factories and know that you can get a fairly complex fairly large factory for 9 figures. I know semiconductors are complicated but so are a lot of things. I’d guess it’s closer to a billion depending on scale/size/location.
5 years to start up a factory is fast, but doable.
This came from looking up how much people are currently spending to build a ram fab. It’s worth remembering that the tools used are very complex and are also impacted by the massive spike in semiconductor prices.
https://www.blackridgeresearch.com/project-profiles/tsmc-arizona-fab-united-states-us-details-cost-expansion-latest-update
https://www.eteknix.com/micron-begins-construction-of-its-massive-ram-factory-in-new-york-to-help-prevent-shortages-by-2030/
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/intel-delays-usd100-billion-ohio-site-to-next-decade-first-fab-now-coming-online-in-2030
They’re quite literally making some of the most complicated and intricate things on the planet.
The vast majority of the cost is tools, and when the price of those spikes due to shortage the cost goes up insanely fast.
Cost estimates from even a just a few years ago have the cost being $10 to $20 billion.
What could it cost…$10?