This just makes me want to play Balatro
Yep, I was one of those people, but I’m happy that I was wrong about it.
I won’t pretend to know how it would have gone either way. Had it actually not happened in the timeline that it did happen, it could have easily been different. The momentum, the media narratives, the quickness with which the Democrats united behind Harris, all of these things caught most everyone by surprise. I could see any of those things being wildly different had Biden chose to step down much earlier. We don’t like to admit it, but irrational, unknowable elements like “vibe” and “timing” have always played a huge role in elections.
What a time to be alive. As it seems now, I was entirely wrong, as was ‘conventional’ political wisdom. May I continue to be wrong. It’s a welcome failure, as far as I’m concerned.
Right there with you
Did you learn anything?
That conventional political wisdom is getting less applicable with every year since the hell-date of 2016?
It’s a wild time for sure. If I knew senators were going to quote 4chan when discussing policies… Man what a time.
That’s actually really great! 1000 kudos to you
Why do you think political wisdom wasn’t applicable in 2016 and hasn’t been since?
I think that’s is really one of the most important things we need to try and understand and I don’t think it’s mainly due to the Internet being a factor.
My guess is it’s moreso due to the influence of money on political campaigns, the influence of mega-corporations on the job market, and all the offshoring of jobs in the last few decades. The terrible state of our education system really doesn’t help either
Why do you think political wisdom wasn’t applicable in 2016 and hasn’t been since?
I think that’s is really one of the most important things we need to try and understand and I don’t think it’s mainly due to the Internet being a factor.
The internet, globalism, the collapse of Rhine Capitalism in favor of neoliberalism and reactions against it, the lack of a clear ideological ‘enemy’ to face… it could be any number of things. All I know for sure is that we’re living in ‘interesting times’, and it’ll likely continue to be ‘interesting’ for a while before any new ‘conventional’ wisdom can be made.
Yeah, unprecedented event after unprecedented event. Still you could’ve been vindicated if anything mildly unfortunate had happened before the DNC. Like if Harris picked a different VP, if Vance was actually in any way adept, etc. And hey, knock on wood, but you could still be right in the end – we probably shouldn’t count our chickens before they hatch.
Good on you though for being a good sport about your previous comments. I was on the “drop out” side (not that Biden would drop out, but I thought pretty much anyone else would have a better chance), but at the end of the day I kinda think we’re all talking out of our asses to a certain degree, because political science isn’t actually a science at all.
What’s to be learned? What is weak logic about the mainline, presumptive nominee, who is a sitting president, who one way or another was the only human being to beat trump in an election, would become the actual nominee and democratic candidate?
That is not a bad bet, or bad logic, if we are sitting in March or April.
Idk, I asked someone else in this thread that and they had a great answer. They mentioned how the way we predict elections has changed since 2016 (or something) and I thought that was super interesting and worth reflecting on. If I answered your question right now it might be something simple like age or someone with a better understanding of history might mention how the current level of wealth inequality compares to previous moments in history
That said, I’m not sure why this similar comment was seen as more offensive. This is literally something I try to do myself when someone I trust is wrong about something. I might not cancel em or whatever but I’ll try to understand what went wrong or maybe just stop listening to them about certain topics they’re consistently wrong on
Wealth inequality has fuck all to do with a reader’s assessment of election candidacy, especially when the primary source (the candidate) is emphatic about their intent to run.
By all available signal, Biden fully intended to run until after the debate, where the cracks formed, other candidates were discussed, and Harris stepped up.
To suggest otherwise could only be arrived at by wish, or reliance on a more distant, less direct source, which is a worse bet.
Idk, even Nancy Pelosi didn’t accept Biden’s words. So, it’s wild, to me, that an informed citizen would simply accept things the way they’re told they are. Maybe this isn’t about “sources” and more about pundits and narrative-makers/builders - the ones that decide who is “electable”. Not everyone accepted the narrative that Biden wouldn’t step down. Some even had the narrative that he must step down and apparently they were “right” - for lack of a better word (sorry for any poor communication)
That said, you’ve clearly made up your mind and you don’t really seem interested in entertaining this idea, so we really don’t have to keep going
For example, you could note that “only human being to beat Trump in an election” is a really small sample size. It’s equally true to note that so far, Hillary is the only Democrat to lose to Trump in an election. The performance post-switch would indicate Trump is not a uniquely dangerous and persuasive candidate, but that his opposition was uniquely weak so far.
Not a failure. These are strange times
Agreed. I really didn’t expect the quick rally. I’m even more impressed with citizens than Kamala’s campaign. It’s restorative.
exact same
Yep, I was wearing that clown makeup too. Dems have not impressed me much lately with being able to deliver a coherent and effective message, so I was fully prepared for a shitshow of disarray if/when Biden dropped out.
It was very surprising to me how effectively they were able to leave Trump stumbling just as he seemed to be on the upswing. The utter lack of disorder around it almost feels like Biden was planning to drop out of the race all along, just waiting for the right moment… but that’s probably giving him too much credit.
What clown makeup? Biden was the presumptive nominee. I wasn’t pro Biden, I was pro Democrat in the Whitehouse. Trump in prison.
I still am, though I acknowledge I was wrong about who the nominee was gonna be.
I personally underestimated the support Harris would get. I remember lots of progressives being unhappy with her back in 2020, due to her background as a prosecutor.
Between that and the obvious reasons Republicans would go after her, I figured it would be an uphill battle.
Very happy to have been wrong!
I’m with ya there.
May we continue righting more of PugJesus’ wrongs
I figured there was a 1% chance of Biden dropping out, but also thought that Kamala would be a better candidate than him, but was also skeptical that Kamala would be able to beat Trump.
So…basically wrong on the first, correct on the second… yet to be determined on the third.
I did not expect the Democrats to actually do anything that would actually help themselves, figuring that they are far too ossified and out of touch.
Currently the Trump and the Republicans seem to stun locked by the ‘they’re just weird’ angle… which is amazing to me in two ways:
One, that after basically 3 decades of spewing lies and hate and insults against their opponents in the form of coordinated talking points to respond to basically every political development, they cannot handle the mildest possible form of this being used against them.
Two, that the Democrats finally actually collectively did something ‘aggressive’ rhetorically. Years and years of ‘taking the high road’ and acting morally superior to their opponents… they finally actually did something (collectively) that makes them not seem like hoity toity cloistered intellectual snobs.
That, and
MikeTim Walz is actually surprisingly relatable and charismatic.*Tim Walz
Derp. Thanks.
guilty
Buffalo bagels
Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. The election isn’t over. This nations racism, sexism, and sheer stupidity might be too much to overcome.
And just because she wins doesn’t mean it goes away either.
And just because she wins doesn’t mean she wins either.
There are election deniers all over the country in important places and they’re going to act up after the election refusing to certify their election results. SCOTUS could end up rubber stamping a Trump win in a scenario where it’s up to them to solve a legal dispute…
Go fuck yourself. You act like you knew this was gunna be the case all along. Most of us were fighting the “let’s just have a vote at the DNC” people. And that’s not how it went.
We didn’t want chaos. Choas is far from what we got.
Get off your high horse there, mate.
You act like you knew this was gunna be the case all along.
Since 2016, actually.
In fact, the only thing that surprised me was that Biden actually dropped out. Never would have thought Pelosi would have been able to convince him.
Go fuck yourself.
Right back at ya, bub~
Still, I imagine they’re pretty happy about being wrong.
You realize they’re the same people who tried to start a national movement for Dems to vote R because Obama beat Hillary, right?
Like. Biden supporters did t just appear overnight. They’re the people who voted R till Bill Clinton in the 90s, and they’re very used to getting what they want, can’t accept when they dont and constantly project
There’s not.many of them, they just never shut up and are the ones currently running the DNC.
Nope, I had no idea. I’m not American. In fact, I don’t even know who you’re referring to as “R.”
But I thought about how I would feel if it was me and I through, yeah, I’d feel pretty silly but I’d also be happy about being wrong.
I just thought it would be fair to them to mention it.
It sounds bad though, whatever it is. That definitely came across.
Gee, thanks for viewing the downfall of our country like a soccer match and voicing your opinion on what we should do I guess.
I mean, there’s practically no way to avoid hearing about your elections, might as well make it slightly more bearable.
They aren’t right, they’re projecting on us. A lot of us are here and thought it was a bad strategic decision before it happened but are happy it went as well as it did
Don’t get cocky, vote!
Get other people to vote.
They didn’t know about Walz. Seriously, wtf Democrats? It seems you have a treasure trove of untapped talent but you still wheel out barely alive corpses like it is the Imperium in WH40K. Let the next generation take over. The Old Ones should step back and turn into advisors and elder statesmen.
Dems can’t dig too much into their talented and passionate base. They have to find waffling liberals more interested in keeping the status quo.
Still so much better than anything the Republicans could muster but don’t be fooled.
They have to find waffling liberals more interested in keeping the status quo.
Bingo.
Yeah though I’ll say two things in our defense: 1) it was a reasonable stance given the information we had, and 2) we’ve been some of the most proud to accept and admit that we were wrong people I’ve ever seen talking politics on the internet.
I disagree on #1, it only seemed like a reasonable stance because you were not exposed to information that would contradict it and were never trained to analyze political bias so you wouldn’t realize that the avoidance of the topic was significant.
I double-minored in Futures Studies and Political Science during postgrad, and predicted that the Democrat incumbent would have to drop out of the race to give their party a chance all the way back in 2016 when the DNC conspired against Bernie’s campaign. For those of us who know how to read between a propagandist’s lines, this has been an inevitability for a long time.
So you’re saying that if we have a phd in this we would be expected to know better? Pardon me, I only got a bs in something unrelated to political science so when I look at the political situation I attempt to see what is most realistically close to what I want. Seeing as I didn’t see experts coming out of the woodwork on this, and instead saw a party with a tendency to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory considering throwing away an incumbent advantage on a president I’d been surprised on how much I approved of his actions after I’d held my nose for him in 2020, I guess I just think that for yokel voters like me it was a reasonable perspective because the only arguments I saw were basically “he’s too old and he’s fucked”. Also it sure seemed unlikely to happen and a bit late to demand it.
So you’re saying that if we have a phd in this we would be expected to know better?
Nah, I’m saying that Americans aren’t taught about politics, they’re lucky if they can make it through high school with a basic understanding of how the state is arranged.
A real education system would make American politics much less predictable, because it would empower Americans to shape their own future rather than merely being subject to corporate whims.
100%
It was so obvious that Biden dropping out would be beneficial and so many of you had your head up your ass about it. Same people that call anyone who brings up the genocide in Palestine Tankies. Gross people.
.ml…sus
Honestly, I had forgotten about Kamala when arguing that Biden was the best bet. My argument always lay in, “Needs to be familiar because Trump has this uncanny ability to swamp somebody without a track record”, and I completely forgot Kamala fit that exactly in the same way Biden did - By being a VP
SO glad I was wrong, too - It was a lot of me groaning, “Oh god Biden is our best bet dear fuck no…”
I think I let myself be misled about the urgency of having a candidate ready and the time for campaigning. Meanwhile, other countries gear up their elections in less than a month.
Many of us misled ourselves about the “obligation” or “strategic advantage” of there always having to be a two-term attempt. The fact that Joe chose Kamala as VP, and decided to retire after one term, speaks VOLUMES about why I trusted and trust him as president and as a fellow human, and how it pissed me off to hear people saying that both parties are the same.
Anyway… Joe Biden’s legacy will now most certainly be a positive one. As I knew it would be.
Yeah. He’s never going to be remembered as positively as Obama, Obama was a cultural phenomenon and remains one of the best orators alive, but he will likely be remembered as a man who genuinely held beliefs and cared about his country enough to grow and change with the times. Biden was the president we didn’t necessarily want but aren’t mad to have had anyways.
I wasn’t on board with Kamala until she picked Walz as her running mate. I was honestly going to vote for Vermin Supreme until then.
Imagine if all the undecideds went to Vermin Supreme and he actually won… better than Trump of course, but wow
It was that plus the “if Biden drops out it will be a whole ordeal establishing a new candidate.” It wasn’t. It was quick, painless, and even the VP choosing was relatively quick and made people happy.
You’re still completely missing the point.
It could have been Tim Walz and no one knew his name before Biden dropped.
The “name recognition” is just bullshit.
99.99% of what neoliberals say they dont even believe, they just say whatever gets them what they want
They wanted Biden, so they just spewed diarrhea onto keyboards throwing everything at the wall hoping something will stick.
But they knew all along that Biden was the worst option, they were just willing to risk trump again than anything a smidge to the left more than Bidens 82 year ass.
Please learn the lesson this time, they’ve been doing it for decades, and show no signs of stopping
The most conservative wings of a political party almost never are on the same side of the rest of the party. Please, for the love of God stop fucking falling for it.
This is garbage discourse towards someone who literally said they are adjusting their perspective.
Thanks, your post history is blatantly what I’m talking about
Good for you, print it out or something.
No need to be so toxic to those you’re speaking to, it fails your point and ruins whatever platform you argue from.
I’m not saying IM of some high position, mind you.
I didn’t even mention neoliberals smugness…
But I don’t need anymore examples, and I know y’all love the last word. So feel free to reply to any of my comments you see. You’ll always get the last word now
All the people who said I was helping the orange man by asking for a better candidate can tell me they’re sorry. Yeah right. They’re the same ones telling us to shut up about Gaza.
I genuinely didn’t think someone else was positioned to take on the campaigning. I’m glad I was wrong.
I don’t know if I ever talked to YOU about it, but I definitely said a few times that it was too risky to change candidates, even though Biden was polling terribly. I’m very happy to eat my hat now!
Yeah, in the same boat. I thought they needed to stick with him because of advantage incumbents have, and I didn’t think we had time to promote a new candidate. Very happy to be wrong about that! I don’t care about the change, I’m just happy to go with whoever has the best chance at winning
Everyone is happy to be wrong. This isn’t the flex you think it is lol
It’s not a flex. It’s a statement about how much is still lacking.
Maybe you should read your comment again cuz it’s definitely not a “statement about how much is still lacking”.
I had no confidence that the Democrats could coalesce around another candidate, in time for the convention.
I’m honestly flabbergasted
Yo I don’t think we spoke but I was someone saying Biden would be the nominee. I even said things like it’s unlikely or impossible there will be another D candidate.
I acknowledge I was wrong on that part. I also acknowledge as the season wore on Biden clearly displayed himself as not fit to run, and a replacement was a good idea.
In general I focused and continue to focus on those who say “stay home or vote 3rd party” as that is an issue in the face of project 2025 and other obvious trump stuff.
So my argument wasn’t “omg vote for grandpa Biden he’s the best” it was “let’s keep trump out of the Whitehouse, a Democratic candidate is the only option, and Biden is currently the likely nominee.”
Also, keep talking about Gaza, it’s important.
“We need a better candidate” is a different cry altogether.
I still feel they’re taking a huge risk and they could still fail miserably like every other time before, but we have no comparative data for a differential anyway.
I still worry they made the wrong choice but they did so the best way possible, and I hope it works out for them. I still have my fears but I sure hope they’re just that.
Feels a wee bit early for the “I told you so” stuff. She’s currently losing in the betting odds.
Edit: it’s good to be wrong
For one thing, it’s an even worse metric than polls. For another:
Interesting, I’ve heard the opposite in terms of betting odds v. traditional polling. Good to know it changed though as Trump was like +5 as recently as like 2 days ago. Thanks for posting.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
2 days ago was probably before the DNC opened, ever day has seemingly been throwing that shit from Back to the Future 3 in the hypetrains engine.
Music to my ears. Thank you for lifting my spirits. We just all gotta vote.
