Leaving the EU has reduced Britain’s GDP by up to 8pc, according to a devastating US study
The latest such assessment comes in the form of a paper from the US-based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). This concludes that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by 6pc to 8pc, far more than most previous estimates.
Investment is worse off by between 12pc and 18pc, employment by between 3pc and 4pc, and productivity also by between 3pc and 4pc. There have been few more devastating assessments than this.
The linked article text is much more lukewarm than the headline.
I was surprised/disappointed tbh. But I think you should resist updating towards agreeing with the headline. Brexit is still too ongoing and close to judge carefully, but in the data it seems like it was washed out by the energy crisis and covid across many statistics, if I’m reading right?
Will anyone learn from this? Will any of the people who were wrong lose credibility? Doubtful.
best we can do is a bailout -western government around the world, probably
I mean, it’s been pretty clear for a while now. Side question, why use “pc” instead of “%”? A bit confusing.
Well, no shit!
Same as the US voting in Trump, the warnings were there before the vote.
IMHO part of the problem was that economics was more a branch of philosophy than a science until the 1970s, but the public never got the memo when this changed.
So we get doofuses who act like their economics claims are purely a matter of opinion, not falsifiable hypotheses. Try arguing for a UBI and watch how many chalkboard economists tell you what they imagine would happen, completely ignoring all experimental results.
It turns out economics is still more hand wavy than substantive science. Economists like to pretend otherwise, but don’t let them fool you. After all, what kind of scientific field would conflate “the economy” with “rich people’s yachts” and just … keep on doing that … even when exposed?
I agree that conflating a healthy economy with stock market growth is bogus. This misconception predates the 1970s, and is the same sort of chalkboard economics I’m talking about.
The chalkboard:
The results:
That doesn’t mean that economics as a whole is bullshit. It means that monetary policy in particular has been heavily propagandized. An economist who agrees with you will find themselves unable to obtain funding and ostracized. Just like Galileo was… But it was geocentrism - not all of astronomy - that was unscientific. Science is how you know if you’re a Galileo or just a crank.
You don’t use science to show that you’re right, you use science to become right.
— Randall Munroe
IMHO the mask simply came off in 2008 when they bailed out the rich and not the poor. They’re pissing on our legs and telling us it’s raining. As more and more people are forced into poverty while the stock market soars, more of us are rightfully asking these questions. So what are we gonna do about it? Do you trust your savings to someone who insists that the economy is rich people’s yachts?
IMHO the mask simply came off in 2008 when they bailed out the rich and not the poor. They’re pissing on our legs and telling us it’s raining. As more and more people are forced into poverty while the stock market soars, more of us are rightfully asking these questions. So what are we gonna do about it? Do you trust your savings to someone who insists that the economy is rich people’s yachts?
It’s all just a matter of goals. Is economics there to help the poor, the middle class or the rich? Depending on your answer, it’s either an absolute failure or an unmitigated success.
And considering the golden rule (“The one who has the gold makes the rules”), it’s quite clear what’s happening there. All of the economics technobabble is only there to distract and justify, not to actually make sense.
IMHO the mask simply came off in 2008 when they bailed out the rich and not the poor.
Watch them bail out AI soon. The inmates are running the asylum
No doubt.
In 2008, the bailout supporters denied that it was a moral hazard.
In 2020, it became “many” times. Nothing ever happens only twice.
And the same reason: Putin
That was one of the reasons why Putin got behind it, and made it a “success”.
It’s only now time?
Still time
and russia backed the brexit movement, shouldve known better.
Nigel is a POS SVR asset. Another FAFO example of fucked up nationalism and racism. If you dumb bastards want to return, you’re more than welcome to, but I do want to see any shit from UKIP and Nigel can shove off to fucking Moscow.
Who could have seen this coming? It was totally unpredictable?
Brexit never shoulda happened, there I said it
Interesting to read this in the telegraph. If I recall correctly they were pro leave during the campaign leading up to the referendum.
Yeah, that’s the significant thing for me here. Not what’s being said, but which paper is saying it.
Because they report the news and inform the public … their content just tends to have a four or five year lag compared to reality.
It’s the Torygraph, they deal lightly at best with news and informing the public, which is what makes it very surprising. If they’re reporting it then reality is even worse
They are pro-Tory. The Tories greatest threat right now is being eaten alive by the Reform party. Doesn’t matter if the Telegraph have to take a hit, blaming Farage not the Tories for the economy is worth it.
https://archive.ph/L2Gqp without paywall
Russian propaganda troll farms amplified British and American racism and xenophobia, leading both countries populations to make utterly disastrous decisions, voting for Brexit and Trump respectively. Putin’s small investment in targeted propaganda is resulting in massive economic and rotational damage to both countries.
Russian propaganda troll farms amplified British and American racism and xenophobia
American techbros platforms gladly accept domestic and foreign money to push false narratives. Democracy crumbling favors them. Blame them too.
